The Eerste Divisie returned for its 2026/27 season with a ten-match program that produced immediate drama, headlined by Jong PSV U21’s surprise 3-2 victory over a FC Volendam side heavily tipped for a fast start. Across the round our forecasting model published a substantial set of calls, and while the opening weekend was not a clean sweep, a number of the key forecasts landed firmly.
How our forecasts did
The scoreboard shows a mixed bag for the model on the opening weekend. The standout performer was both teams to score, where eight of the ten calls proved correct, making it the best-returning topic of the round.
At the other end of the table, the most difficult topics proved to be the detailed sequence forecasts. The half-time and full-time call failed to land in all five of its attempts, ending the round without a single correct verdict. The first team to score topic also struggled, with just two of five calls graded correct.
Results
Dordrecht 2-1 Jong Ajax A perfect start for the model at the Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion. The forecast insisted on a Dordrecht win, more than 2.5 goals, and both teams to score, and the match delivered on every front. The headline, however, was the exact-scoreline call of 2-1, which landed for its highest-confidence perfection. The analysis had pointed to Dordrecht’s strong head-to-head record, and they opened the season by taking maximum points once again.
Emmen 1-0 Roda This was the round’s biggest misfire. The model was cautious, with low-confidence calls across the board, but it still saw an open, high-scoring draw with both teams finding the net. Instead, Emmen kept a clean sheet and a single goal settled it, leaving every one of the five forecasts graded incorrect. The reasoning had leaned heavily on a recent history of draws and goals, including a 2-2 thriller in April; none of that pattern repeated itself on Friday night.
FC OSS 1-2 NAC Breda Another spotless performance from the forecasts. A medium-confidence call for a NAC Breda win was justified as they triumphed on the road. The model saw more than 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, which both landed, and remarkably, a second exact-scoreline forecast of 1-2 also came in. The analysis highlighted Breda’s superior pedigree and historical dominance in this fixture, and that gulf told on the pitch.
VVV Venlo 3-4 Heracles A seven-goal thriller that the model anticipated in its shape, if not its precise score. Low-confidence calls for a Heracles win and a high-scoring contest with both teams scoring all came in as correct. Only the exact-scoreline call of 1-2 was off the mark, as the match outstripped even that open expectation. The analysis had noted that none of the ten prior meetings had ended in a draw, and that run of decisive results continues.
Vitesse 1-1 Waalwijk The model made a cautious call for a home win that did not materialise, as Vitesse had to settle for a point. The forecasts for a Vitesse win and more than 2.5 goals were graded incorrect, a mark against the model’s read of the game. The calls for both teams to score and Vitesse to win or draw did, however, land. The historic Waalwijk resilience in Arnhem, flagged in the analysis, proved the more significant trend.
Den Bosch 1-1 Almere City FC A medium-confidence call for an Almere City win was derailed by a determined Den Bosch display that earned a draw. This result also took down the winner-either-way forecast and the call for more than 2.5 goals, while Den Bosch scored first to wrong-foot the first-team-to-score call. The both-teams-to-score call was the only one to land here. The analysis had leaned on Almere’s three wins in four meetings last season, a historical edge that counted for nothing at the start of the new campaign.
Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap Another draw that upended the model’s medium-confidence call for an away win. A call for a winner either way was also incorrect, and the match failed to breach 2.5 goals. Both teams to score did land, the only forecast to do so in a fixture where the analysis had noted De Graafschap’s six wins in the last ten meetings, including a recent 4-1 thrashing on this ground.
MVV 2-1 Jong Utrecht The model’s strongest single-fixture performance of the round. A cautious MVV win call was correct, as was the forecast for both teams to score and a winner either way. The first-team-to-score call for MVV also landed, and the exact-scoreline forecast of 2-1 came in for the third time in the round. Only the half-time and full-time verdict missed, as MVV were not ahead at the break. The analysis had pointed to the 14 goals in the prior three meetings, and the open nature of the contest was confirmed once more.
Jong AZ 0-1 FC Eindhoven A match where the direction was right but the detail was off. The model correctly called an FC Eindhoven win and had them scoring first, but the match fell well short of the medium-confidence forecast for more than 2.5 goals and both teams to score. A tight, single-goal contest was not what the historical data, which showed 22 goals in the last five meetings, had led the analysis to expect.
Jong PSV U21 3-2 FC Volendam The round’s headline shock. A medium-confidence call for a FC Volendam win was proven wrong as Jong PSV’s young side produced a bold performance to take all three points. The model did, however, correctly forecast more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and a winner either way. The analysis had recalled Volendam’s two emphatic wins, each by a 4-0 scoreline, last season, but the youthful home side turned that narrative on its head to provide the most surprising result of the opening weekend.
What we got wrong: Volendam’s damp squib
The standout miss of the round was FC Volendam’s 3-2 defeat at Jong PSV U21. The model’s analysis was confident that Volendam’s senior experience and their record of two 4-0 wins over this opponent last season would translate into an opening-day victory. Instead, Jong PSV U21’s youthful energy overwhelmed that logic, handing our medium-confidence match-result forecast its most notable failure of the weekend. The half-time and full-time market struggled across the board, a reminder of the difficulty in sequencing outcomes, especially on a first matchday when teams are still finding their competitive rhythm.
The Emmen-Roda fixture was a more low-key but comprehensive miss, with all five calls graded incorrect. The model had looked at a history of goals and draws and projected another open affair; Emmen’s narrow, clean-sheet win was exactly the kind of first-weekend curveball that can make a forecasting model look a step behind.
The opening weekend of the Eerste Divisie season saw a handful of the expected contenders make strong starts, but it was the defiance of Jong PSV U21 and the stubbornness of the draw at Helmond and Den Bosch that reshaped the early narrative. The model landed its firmest calls for goals and both teams to score, and now moves on with a record that shows a sharp eye for the shape of contests, even when the exact form proves harder to pin down.
