Eerste Divisie Matchweek 12 runs across 23 and 24 October 2026, featuring 10 fixtures across two days of action. The round tests the top of the division, headlined by league leaders Heracles travelling to face fifth-placed NAC Breda while second-placed Almere City FC meet sixth-placed Roda. Detailed forecasts for nine fixtures are set out below, while projections for the remaining Saturday fixture will appear on the match page the day before kickoff.
NAC Breda vs Heracles
League leaders Heracles face their most demanding test of recent weeks when they visit fifth-placed NAC Breda on Friday. Heracles sit atop the standings with 28 points from 11 matches, powered by a division-leading 36 goals scored. They arrive following consecutive victories, including a 5-1 away win at MVV, though they must manage without injured goalkeeper Fabian de Keijzer. Forward Jean-Paul N'Djoli remains their sharpest finisher, having scored seven goals across all competitions this season.
NAC Breda enter the fixture in steady form of their own. Unbeaten in their last five league outings, the home side have secured consecutive clean-sheet victories against MVV and Helmond Sport. Charles-Andreas Brym leads their scoring charts with six goals, and the team averages two goals per match on their own ground.
Our forecasting model leans cautiously towards a NAC Breda win, rating confidence as low given the potency of the visitors. The model also anticipates an open game, projecting both teams to score and a total of more than 2.5 goals. In its speculative scoreline projection, the model outlines a 2-1 win for NAC Breda, though exact scorelines carry low confidence.
Friday fixtures
Almere City FC vs Roda
Almere City FC sit second with 22 points, having won their last three home fixtures and conceding only twice on home turf all season. Striker Ferdy Druijf has scored seven goals in all competitions, though the hosts will miss the injured Mees Hoedemakers. Roda picked up a 2-1 away win at Jong Utrecht in their previous game but have scored only 12 goals in 11 league matches. Our model forecasts an Almere City FC win with medium confidence, alongside medium confidence that both teams find the net.
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk
De Graafschap sit 17th with 25 goals conceded in 11 matches following a 2-1 loss at Jong Ajax, with Julian Kania leading their attack on five goals. Waalwijk, in 10th place, drew 1-1 with FC Volendam last time out and have lost just twice in their last ten matches. While Waalwijk have managed only four goals in five away games, our model offers a low-confidence projection of an away win for Waalwijk, while rating the call for more than 2.5 goals as high confidence.
Den Bosch vs MVV
Den Bosch enter on a two-match winning run after defeating TOP Oss 2-1, with Sebastian Karlsson Grach pacing their attack on five goals. MVV arrive in ninth place after three consecutive losses, having shipped 10 goals during that sequence including a 5-1 home defeat against Heracles. With MVV struggling to contain opponents on the road, our model projects a Den Bosch win with medium confidence and calls for more than 2.5 goals with high confidence.
FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV U21
FC Eindhoven have dropped consecutive games without scoring, falling 1-0 to Vitesse and 3-0 to Almere City FC to sit 15th in the standings. Jong PSV U21 are 13th following a 1-0 defeat to Dordrecht and remain winless on their travels this season. Both defences have conceded freely, and our model projects both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals with high confidence, while giving a low-confidence call for an FC Eindhoven win.
FC Volendam vs Jong Utrecht
Eighth-placed FC Volendam have won all five of their home matches, with Henk Veerman already reaching 10 goals in all competitions. Jong Utrecht sit bottom of the table on seven points following three straight defeats, conceding two goals per game away from home. Our model projects an FC Volendam win with medium confidence, expecting more than 2.5 goals and backing the home side to score first with high confidence.
Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport
Jong AZ drew 4-4 against VVV Venlo in their previous fixture, taking their season tally to 26 goals scored and 22 conceded without keeping a clean sheet. Helmond Sport sit 19th after a 2-0 defeat to NAC Breda and have lost all five of their away matches this term. Our model projects a Jong AZ win with medium confidence and calls for more than 2.5 goals with high confidence.
TOP Oss vs Jong Ajax
TOP Oss have won their last two home games, scoring seven goals across those matches, despite a 2-1 defeat at Den Bosch last week. Jong Ajax sit 16th after ending a winless run with a 2-1 victory over De Graafschap. Our model projects a TOP Oss win with medium confidence, also projecting more than 2.5 goals with high confidence.
Vitesse vs Emmen
Seventh-placed Vitesse host fourth-placed Emmen after a 1-0 victory at FC Eindhoven, with Naoufal Bannis leading their scoring on 10 goals. Emmen travel after consecutive victories over Almere City FC and Dordrecht, spearheaded by Jack Cooper Love's eight goals this season. Our model offers a low-confidence call for a Vitesse win, alongside medium confidence on more than 2.5 goals.
Saturday fixture
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo
Saturday's single match features 18th-placed Dordrecht hosting third-placed VVV Venlo. Dordrecht secured a 1-0 away win over Jong PSV U21 in their previous game, with Martin Vetkal leading their attack on three goals. VVV Venlo sit level on 22 points with second place after a wild 4-4 draw against Jong AZ and have scored 30 league goals in 11 rounds, led by Leon Schmidt's five strikes.
What the round could change
Matchweek 12 offers several opportunities for movement near the top of the division. A slip by Heracles against NAC Breda would allow Almere City FC, VVV Venlo, or Emmen to close the six-point gap separating first place from the chasing group. At the opposite end, Jong Utrecht and Helmond Sport look to arrest prolonged losing streaks on the road to keep pace with the rest of the bottom half.
