Matchweek 5 of the Eerste Divisie delivered a weekend of staggering scorelines, headlined by Jong AZ's nine-goal thriller away at Dordrecht, while our forecasting model struggled to keep up with the chaos in its match outcome projections.
How our forecasts did
It was a punishing round for predicting outright winners. Only four of the ten match result calls landed, while the exact scoreline projections completely blanked, returning zero correct from ten. The half-time and full-time category managed just two from ten, and first team to score landed five of ten. Win or draw calls split evenly with five correct. However, the model successfully read the attacking flow of the fixtures: total goals was our strongest category, with eight of the ten calls proving correct, while both teams to score landed in six of the ten matches.
Results
Friday, September 4
Almere City FC 0-1 Jong Ajax A firm forecast for an Almere City FC win missed the mark entirely as the hosts were shut out. The model's firm projection for a high-scoring affair also failed.
Emmen 5-3 FC Volendam Our cautious call for an Emmen victory proved correct in an eight-goal shootout. The model correctly anticipated a high total goals count and that both teams would score.
Helmond Sport 4-2 VVV Venlo The model favoured a VVV Venlo win, missing the mark as Helmond Sport took the points. Projections for both teams to score and a high goal tally did land.
Heracles 5-0 De Graafschap A firm projection for a Heracles victory was comfortably validated, as was the call for them to score first. The forecast correctly anticipated a high goal count, though it missed on both teams to score.
Vitesse 2-1 FC OSS Our model correctly backed a Vitesse win, landing the match result alongside accurate calls for the hosts to score first and for a high goal total.
Waalwijk 4-2 NAC Breda The model missed its match result call for a NAC Breda win, but correctly projected that NAC would open the scoring in a match that delivered on our high total goals forecast.
Saturday, September 5
Dordrecht 3-6 Jong AZ A cautious projection for a Dordrecht win was upended by a wildly open contest. However, a firm call for a high total goals count was easily validated, and the model correctly anticipated both teams finding the net.
Sunday, September 6
MVV 1-1 Roda Our forecast missed on a Roda victory, though a cautious call for a low-scoring match landed perfectly in this draw.
Monday, September 7
Jong PSV U21 3-1 Den Bosch The model accurately projected a Jong PSV U21 win, while also landing correct calls for the hosts to score first and for a high-scoring match where both sides registered a goal.
Jong Utrecht 0-0 FC Eindhoven A disappointing end to the round for our forecasts, missing a cautious call for a Jong Utrecht win and entirely misreading the match with a firm projection for a high goal count.
What we got wrong
The model’s biggest blind spot this weekend was overestimating early-season attacking momentum. Almere City FC had started their campaign brilliantly, taking ten points from their first four matches while averaging nearly three goals a game. The model placed a firm call on them to beat Jong Ajax and score heavily, but their usually potent attack failed to register a single goal.
Conversely, the model anticipated a barrage of goals between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven that never arrived. Jong Utrecht entered the match at the bottom of the table with the division's worst defensive record, having conceded 15 times in five straight defeats, while FC Eindhoven had recently shipped five goals in an away loss. A firm projection for a high-scoring game inexplicably yielded a goalless draw. The model also misread the Limburg derby, backing Roda to beat MVV. MVV were the early-season pacesetters and significantly outperforming their opponents on expected goals, a metric the model used to justify fading them, but they held their ground for a draw.
The round leaves Heracles rolling with incredible scoring output after four straight wins, while early pacesetters like MVV and Almere City adjust to dropped points in a highly unpredictable Eerste Divisie weekend.
