Matchweek 3 of the Primeira Liga saw Benfica and FC Porto maintain their dominant starts to the campaign, while Estrela secured a surprise victory over SC Braga to close out the round. Our forecasting model navigated the fixtures reasonably well, successfully calling the match result in six of the nine contests.
How our forecasts did
Our exact scoreline projections had the toughest round, returning just two correct calls from nine fixtures. The half-time and full-time predictions also struggled, landing four times, while the both teams to score category saw five of the nine forecasts prove accurate.
The model was much more assured on the broader outcomes. The first team to score and win or draw categories were our most successful, with seven of the nine calls landing in each. Elsewhere, six of the nine match result projections and six of the nine total goals forecasts were correct.
Results
Maritimo 2-2 Academico Viseu Maritimo had started the season in clinical fashion but were held to a 2-2 draw by an Academico Viseu side showing plenty of attacking intent. Our cautious call for a home win missed the mark, though the model correctly anticipated both teams to score.
Estoril 0-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave arrived searching for their first goal of the campaign and departed with a 2-0 victory. Our projection for an Estoril win was incorrect, but a firm call that at least one side would be kept off the scoresheet landed safely.
Sporting CP 3-1 Alverca Sporting CP extended their unbeaten start by seeing off promoted Alverca 3-1. A firm forecast for a home win was correct, alongside an accurate call for the hosts to score the opening goal.
Guimaraes 1-0 Nacional Guimaraes bounced back from consecutive defeats to claim a narrow 1-0 home victory over Nacional. A projection for a Guimaraes win landed safely, and the model successfully called the exact 1-0 scoreline.
Santa Clara 1-0 Famalicao Santa Clara kept their unbeaten home record intact with a 1-0 win against a Famalicao side still searching for their first victory. The model accurately projected a Santa Clara win, while also correctly calling for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.
FC Porto 2-0 Arouca In a clash of two perfect defensive records at the Dragão, FC Porto emerged with a 2-0 win over Arouca. A firm projection for a Porto win was never in doubt, and the model hit the exact 2-0 scoreline perfectly.
GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia Gil Vicente controlled proceedings to claim a 2-0 victory against a Casa Pia side that arrived having conceded eight goals without reply prior to kickoff. A firm call for a home win and the opening goal proved entirely correct.
Moreirense 0-4 Benfica Benfica continued their imperious early-season form, comprehensively beating Moreirense 4-0. The model firmly backed an away win and for the visitors to open the scoring, both of which landed comfortably.
Estrela 2-1 SC Braga Estrela found their first home win of the campaign by upsetting SC Braga 2-1. Our model expected an away victory, leading to missed calls on the match result and total goals, though it did correctly anticipate Braga scoring first.
What we got wrong
The most glaring miss of the round came in the final fixture. SC Braga travelled to Estrela on a ten-match unbeaten run across all competitions, boasting an impressive defensive record against a host still searching for their first home win. Our model noted that recent head-to-head meetings had been open, but ultimately leaned on Braga's current solidity to dictate the match. Instead, Estrela claimed a 2-1 victory, overturning our calls for an away win and a low-scoring affair, despite our cautious projection that the visitors would strike first proving correct.
Our reading of Estoril's meeting with Rio Ave also missed the mark. Rio Ave had lost both of their opening matches without scoring, generating barely half an expected goal per game, which led our model to cautiously back the hosts. Rio Ave's 2-0 victory confounded that logic and completely dismantled our match result projection.
Matchweek 3 provided further evidence that the established powers are already finding their rhythm, with Benfica, Sporting CP, and FC Porto all dispatching their opponents efficiently. However, the unexpected triumphs for Rio Ave and Estrela serve to highlight that early-season form remains fluid.
