Matchweek 28 in the Allsvenskan delivered a punishing weekend for our forecasting model, marked by defensive stalemates and upsets at both ends of the division, led by bottom-dwelling Halmstad taking a 2-1 victory over title contenders Djurgardens IF. Across the eight fixtures, our match result projections struggled badly, landing just two correct outcomes as several heavily favoured visitors stumbled.
How our forecasts did
The exact scoreline calls suffered the most complete failure of the round, with zero of the eight projections proving correct. Our match result calls also fared poorly, landing just two of the eight. First team to score projections produced only one correct call from eight attempts, while half-time and full-time calls also managed only one from eight. Win or draw calls saw three of eight land.
Our best returns came in the goal counts and scoring distribution, though neither was dominant. Both total goals and both teams to score finished with four correct calls from eight fixtures.
Results
Hammarby FF 4-1 IF Elfsborg Hammarby FF started the round with commanding attacking play, sweeping aside IF Elfsborg in a five-goal match. Our high-confidence forecast for a Hammarby FF win landed cleanly, alongside successful calls for more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and Hammarby FF to strike first.
Degerfors IF 1-2 Gais Relegation-threatened Degerfors IF fell short at home as Gais secured all three points. Our call for a Gais win landed alongside correct forecasts for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals, though our expectation that Gais would open the scoring went astray.
Orgryte IS 0-0 Vasteras SK FK Vasteras SK FK arrived in solid away form against an Orgryte IS side stuck near the foot of the table, but neither team found a breakthrough. Our projection for a Vasteras SK FK victory missed completely in a scoreless draw that wiped out every forecast on the fixture.
IFK Goteborg 0-0 Malmo FF A tight meeting between two mid-table rivals finished without a goal as defensive caution prevailed. Our projection of an IFK Goteborg win missed, as did our forecast for both sides to score.
Halmstad 2-1 Djurgardens IF Table-propping Halmstad produced the shock of the weekend by defeating high-flying Djurgardens IF. Our model held high confidence in a Djurgardens IF win, which failed completely, though our secondary projections for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals proved accurate.
AIK Stockholm 3-2 BK Hacken AIK Stockholm overcame defensive absences to edge BK Hacken in a frantic five-goal encounter. Our projection favoured a BK Hacken win following their eight-match unbeaten sequence, meaning that call missed, although calls for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals landed.
IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Mjallby AIF Neither attack could find a route through as IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF settled for a point each. Our forecast had backed a home win, meaning the stalemate defeated all seven calls on the board for this fixture.
Kalmar FF 1-0 Sirius Sirius entered the weekend sitting second in the standings but were held quiet by Kalmar FF, who claimed a narrow victory. While our match result call for an away win missed, our win or draw projection that favoured a decisive outcome either way was graded correct.
What we got wrong
The clearest blind spot came at Halmstad, where the model heavily backed Djurgardens IF. Stuart Baxter's Halmstad had entered the round with fewer than a goal scored per game on average and weak underlying chance creation, while Djurgarden were pushing at the sharp end of the table. Halmstad's sharp finishing completely overturned those expectations.
Our projections also misread Sirius, who carried an exceptional away record of ten wins from thirteen prior road trips into their meeting with thirteenth-placed Kalmar FF. Instead of dictating terms, Sirius generated little and fell to a 1-0 defeat. Combined with scoreless stalemates for Vasteras SK FK and Malmo FF, the model repeatedly overestimated travelling attacks throughout the weekend.
With only two rounds remaining in the Allsvenskan season, Hammarby FF emerged as the round's biggest winners at the top following defeats for Djurgardens IF and Sirius, while Halmstad gave themselves an unexpected lifeline at the foot of the table.
