Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura Matchweek 9 concluded with Lanus producing a dominant away victory against Deportivo Riestra, while our forecasting model saw mixed outcomes across a slate of tight fixtures.
How our forecasts did
The exact scoreline projections suffered a difficult round, with none of the 15 calls landing. The model also struggled on both teams to score, getting just three of 15 correct, as well as half-time and full-time, where only three of 15 landed. It found much firmer footing elsewhere: 12 of the 15 win or draw calls were correct, making it the most successful topic of the round, and 11 of the 15 first team to score calls landed. For the headline match result topic, seven of the 15 projections were accurate, while the total goals calls were split, returning seven correct from 15.
Results
Friday, September 11
Newells Old Boys 1-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield arrived in excellent form, but the model's cautious call for an away win was undone by a draw, though the firm projection for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match landed successfully.
Defensa Y Justicia 2-0 Gimnasia M. The model correctly called a Defensa Y Justicia victory and accurately expected the hosts to score the opening goal against a porous Gimnasia side.
Saturday, September 12
Boca Juniors 3-1 Central Cordoba de Santiago A firm call for a Boca Juniors win landed comfortably as they extended their strong record at La Bombonera, though the high-confidence projection for fewer than 2.5 goals missed.
Estudiantes L.P. 2-1 Platense Our model correctly called an Estudiantes L.P. win and anticipated them scoring first, but missed the mark on a firm projection for fewer than 2.5 goals.
Independ. Rivadavia 4-3 Aldosivi A seven-goal thriller meant the model's cautious expectation for a low-scoring match was thoroughly dismantled, but the firm call for an Independiente Rivadavia win was correct.
Atletico Tucuman 1-2 River Plate The model's cautious match result call for a River Plate win proved accurate, with the visitors edging a tight contest.
Talleres Cordoba 2-1 Union Santa Fe Our model leaned toward a draw here, expecting Talleres' recent blunt form to cancel out Union Santa Fe's attacking output, but the hosts claimed a narrow victory.
Sunday, September 13
Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Belgrano Cordoba A cautious call for a Sarmiento Junin win fell short as Belgrano Cordoba secured a draw, though the model correctly expected fewer than 2.5 goals.
Tigre 0-1 Rosario Central The model projected a draw, but Rosario Central broke through to claim the points, leaving our match result call incorrect despite a successful total goals forecast.
Argentinos JRS 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. Despite Argentinos Juniors being the league's strongest side by underlying numbers, they were held to a draw, meaning our match result call missed.
Independiente 1-1 San Lorenzo A cautious expectation for an Independiente win was thwarted by a stalemate, though the firm call for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match proved correct.
Monday, September 14
Huracan 2-1 Racing Club Huracan's form at the Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó continued, justifying the model's call for a home win against a struggling Racing Club side.
Banfield 1-1 Barracas Central The model's cautious call for a Banfield win missed as the points were shared at the Florencio Solá, though the firm total goals projection landed.
Deportivo Riestra 0-3 Lanus Our model expected a draw at the Guillermo Laza, but Lanus found their scoring touch on the road to secure a comprehensive victory.
Tuesday, September 15
Instituto Cordoba 2-1 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto A firm projection for an Instituto Cordoba win landed as they dispatched struggling Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto at the Presidente Peron, rounding out the week.
What we got wrong
The model's biggest misread came at the Guillermo Laza, where it projected a draw between Deportivo Riestra and Lanus. Riestra had been exceptionally resilient at home, losing just twice in twelve matches and conceding barely over half a goal per game. In contrast, Lanus had been struggling on their travels, failing to score in half of their recent away trips. The model leaned heavily on these defensive and away-form metrics, failing to anticipate Lanus exploding for three goals.
Another significant miss occurred when Talleres Cordoba hosted Union Santa Fe. The model cautiously projected a draw, noting Talleres' alarmingly blunt form—winless in five and struggling to score at home—while respecting Union's division-leading away scoring rate. Instead of a stalemate, Talleres found a way to win 2-1, defying their recent sluggish attacking numbers. Furthermore, the model completely blanked on exact scoreline calls this round, highlighting the difficulty of pinpointing precise outcomes in a division where teams regularly broke out of their recent scoring patterns.
Liga Profesional Argentina's Clausura phase continues to test expectations, with reliable home fortresses like Riestra's breached and defensively minded matchups unexpectedly producing high-scoring affairs.
