Liga Profesional Argentina Clausura Matchweek 10 brought a round of unexpected scorelines and sharp attacking displays, highlighted by Huracan defeating second-placed River Plate 2-1 and Lanus overcoming league leaders Estudiantes L.P. 2-1. Our forecasting model recorded a steady showing on outright match outcomes and opening scorers, though multiple high-scoring games undermined the defensive projections.
How our forecasts did
The total goals calls struggled most across the round. Only six of the 15 total goals calls landed, as games that pointed toward defensive caution repeatedly produced three or more goals. Both teams to score also proved challenging, with seven of the 15 calls correct. Exact scoreline projections are naturally difficult, yet two of the 15 calls hit precisely: Rosario Central's 1-0 victory and Independ. Rivadavia's 1-0 away win. The half-time and full-time calls returned three correct outcomes from 15.
By contrast, the win or draw calls were the round's strongest category, with 12 of the 15 calls landing. The first team to score category was also reliable, producing 11 correct calls from 15 fixtures. In match results, nine of the 15 calls landed.
Results
Central Cordoba de Santiago and Defensa Y Justicia opened the matchweek with a 2-2 draw; our model correctly anticipated the points being shared and Defensa Y Justicia scoring first, though the four-goal total broke the projection for a low tally.
Racing Club earned a 3-1 home victory over Sarmiento Junin, landing our call for a home win, both teams to score, and Racing Club being level at the break before winning.
Gimnasia L.P. were held to a 2-2 draw by Banfield; our call for the home side to win or draw landed along with their opening goal, but the projected home victory missed.
Gimnasia M. played out a 0-0 stalemate with Deportivo Riestra, satisfying our calls for fewer than 2.5 goals, at least one clean sheet, and the home side to win or draw, though the home win call fell short.
Union Santa Fe suffered a 1-2 defeat against Independiente; our model hit the opening goal call for Union Santa Fe but missed the match result as the away side took all three points.
River Plate were stunned in a 1-2 defeat against Huracan, missing our firm projections for a home win and a low total score.
Instituto Cordoba secured a 3-1 win over Talleres Cordoba, landing our calls for an Instituto Cordoba win and the hosts to score first.
Boca Juniors produced a disciplined 2-0 away win over San Lorenzo, fulfilling our calls for an away victory, fewer than 2.5 goals, Boca Juniors scoring first, and at least one side being kept off the scoresheet.
Platense slipped to a 0-1 home defeat against Newells Old Boys; our calls for Newells Old Boys to strike first, fewer than 2.5 goals, and at least one clean sheet all landed, though the Platense win call missed.
Rosario Central edged Argentinos JRS 1-0, delivering an exact scoreline hit alongside correct calls for a home win, the first goal, and under 2.5 goals.
Belgrano Cordoba beat Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto 2-1, landing our firm call for a home victory despite the visitors finding the net.
Velez Sarsfield edged Tigre 3-2 in an open encounter, successfully landing our call for a home win, the first goal, and Velez Sarsfield leading at both half-time and full-time.
Aldosivi took a 1-0 home win over Atletico Tucuman; our call for a decisive winner landed along with under 2.5 goals and a clean sheet, but the projected away victory was flipped.
Barracas Central were beaten 0-1 by Independ. Rivadavia, giving our model its second exact scoreline success of the round while sweeping the match result, first scorer, and under 2.5 goals calls.
Lanus closed out the round with a 2-1 victory over league leaders Estudiantes L.P., verifying our call for a Lanus win, the opening goal, and the hosts leading at half-time before winning the match.
What we got wrong
The most notable miss came at River Plate, where our model held firm confidence in a home victory. River Plate entered the contest in excellent form with three straight wins and dominant attacking numbers, while Huracan had conceded an average of 1.69 expected goals on their travels. Instead, Huracan absorbed pressure, took their chances, and overturned our strongest call of the round.
The model also miscalculated the attacking output of several struggling attacks. Central Cordoba de Santiago had failed to score in 14 of their previous 16 league matches, yet scored twice against Defensa Y Justicia. Combined with high-scoring affairs involving Lanus and Velez Sarsfield, the assumption of low scoring in games with defensive profiles proved the model's primary blind spot.
Clausura Matchweek 10 tightened the top end of the division. Defeats for both Estudiantes L.P. and River Plate opened the door for Lanus, Boca Juniors, and Rosario Central to make ground as the campaign moves into its second half.
