Serie A Matchweek 10 runs from Saturday 31 October through Monday 2 November, featuring 10 fixtures headlined by a city derby at the top of the standings. Inter arrive at the weekend leading the division on 25 points, closely pursued by Lazio and AS Roma. As always, our predictive model evaluates each fixture based on underlying chance creation, form, and team news; the forecasts for the earlier fixtures are detailed below, while the remaining calls appear on each match page the day before kickoff.
The match of the round: AC Milan vs Inter
The Derby della Madonnina on Saturday evening takes centre stage as table-toppers Inter meet fifth-placed AC Milan. Inter enter in strong form, having collected 25 points from nine matches while averaging 2.7 expected goals per game under Cristian Chivu. However, they must adjust to the absence of top scorer Lautaro Martínez, alongside injuries to defenders Benjamin Pavard and John Stones, and midfielder Curtis Jones.
AC Milan, led by Ruben Amorim, recently suffered a 4-2 home defeat to Bologna after a 2-0 win at Udinese. Their back line is depleted with Fikayo Tomori and Matteo Gabbia sidelined, while Alexis Saelemaekers is also unavailable. Our model leans towards an Inter win with medium confidence, projecting an open encounter with more than 2.5 goals and both teams scoring. As a speculative call, the model offers a low-confidence forecast of a 2-1 scoreline in Inter's favour.
Saturday fixtures
The round begins when Bologna host Monza. Bologna enter following a 4-2 away win over AC Milan, led in attack by Samuel Mbangula, despite missing Emil Holm, Jay Enem, and Lorenzo De Silvestri. Monza remain winless away from home and have conceded 22 goals in nine matches, with Matteo Pessina and Michael Folorunsho missing through injury. The model projects a Bologna win with medium confidence, seeing Bologna as a firm candidate to score the opening goal.
Later on Saturday, AS Roma travel to Udinese. Roma sit third on 21 points, scoring 23 times across nine league games with Donyell Malen on 10 goals in all competitions, though Mile Svilar, Lorenzo Pellegrini, and Manu Koné are out injured. Udinese sit 17th after drawing 0-0 at Parma, struggling for goals with David Alaba and Idrissa Gueye among those sidelined. Our model gives high confidence to an AS Roma win, alongside a medium-confidence expectation for both teams to score.
Sunday fixtures
Sunday begins with Como hosting Venezia. Cesc Fàbregas's side sit fourth after three straight wins in all competitions, including a 3-1 victory at Torino with top scorer T. Douvikas leading the line. Bottom-placed Venezia have lost four away matches and have scored only six goals this season under Davide Nicola. Our model issues a high-confidence forecast for a Como win and more than 2.5 goals.
In the afternoon, sixth-placed Frosinone host ninth-placed Torino. Frosinone have scored nine goals in their last two outings, including a 5-1 win over Lecce where Antonio Raimondo continued his strong form. Torino fell 3-1 to Como last time out and travel without Rolando Mandragora and Ricardo Rodríguez.
Concurrently, second-placed Lazio face Cagliari. Lazio scored six against Sassuolo last week and are level with Inter on 25 points, though Albert Guðmundsson is out injured. Cagliari sit 10th having conceded 10 goals in three consecutive defeats, most recently losing 4-2 to AS Roma.
Later on Sunday, Lecce meet Genoa. Lecce sit 14th after conceding five at Frosinone and must cope without suspended defender Kialonda Gaspar and injured forward Lassana Coulibaly. Genoa arrive in good form after back-to-back clean-sheet wins, including a 2-0 victory against Juventus.
Sunday finishes with eighth-placed Juventus hosting seventh-placed Napoli, with both teams level on 14 points. Juventus lost 2-0 at Genoa on Wednesday and will miss Francisco Conceição. Napoli defeated Monza 4-1 in their last match, powered by Kevin De Bruyne, though defenders Alessandro Buongiorno and Benoît Badiashile remain absent.
Monday fixtures
Monday features two matches starting with 15th-placed Sassuolo taking on 18th-placed Fiorentina. Sassuolo have conceded 12 goals across their last three matches, including a 6-2 loss to Lazio, and are without Ismaël Koné. Fiorentina drew 2-2 with Atalanta on Thursday but remain in the bottom three without an away win.
The round concludes when Atalanta host 19th-placed Parma. Atalanta sit 12th after consecutive high-scoring draws against Frosinone and Fiorentina, though injuries keep Gianluca Scamacca and Giacomo Raspadori out. Parma have managed only five goals in nine league games, earning a 0-0 draw against Udinese on Wednesday.
Table implications
Matchweek 10 presents an opportunity at both ends of the table. A positive result for Inter in the derby would protect their lead, while any dropped points could allow Lazio or AS Roma to take top spot. At the bottom, Venezia, Parma, and Fiorentina risk slipping further away from safety if they fail to turn around their difficult away form.
