Serie A's Matchweek 4 brought a shock defeat for Juventus and an eight-goal thriller in Milan, as our forecasting model experienced a mixed round of returns across the Italian flight.
How our forecasts did
Total goals proved to be a major blind spot this weekend, returning just one correct call from ten fixtures. Both teams to score, exact scoreline, and half-time and full-time forecasts were similarly difficult to pin down, with each topic yielding two successful hits from ten. The model was far more assured when calling the win or draw, which landed in seven of the ten matches, while first team to score delivered six correct calls. The match result projections finished evenly split, with five successful calls out of ten.
Results
Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina Our model cautiously projected a Venezia win, which fell short as Fiorentina found their attacking rhythm to take the points. We did, however, correctly forecast the hosts to strike first.
Genoa 1-1 Frosinone A low-confidence call for a Genoa victory missed the mark in this draw, though the safety net of a win or draw projection landed. The model also accurately anticipated Frosinone opening the scoring.
Lazio 2-2 AC Milan Our projection for a home win was undone by a four-goal draw in Rome. The model correctly noted Lazio to win or draw, but missed entirely on the expectation of a tight, low-scoring affair.
Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari A firm forecast for an Atalanta victory missed the mark as Cagliari yielded an impressive away win, confounding our expectations.
Lecce 3-2 Monza We correctly projected a Lecce win and for the hosts to score first in this meeting of struggling sides, though the five-goal output shattered our call for a low-scoring contest.
Napoli 1-0 Bologna Our model hit a near-perfect sweep here, correctly calling a Napoli victory, a clean sheet for at least one side, the hosts to score first, and the exact 1-0 scoreline.
Sassuolo 3-2 Juventus A firm projection for a Juventus victory was undone as Sassuolo put three past what had been the league's meanest defence.
Como 2-1 Parma A high-confidence forecast for a Como win landed successfully, as did our call for the hosts to open the scoring and lead at both half-time and full-time.
Torino 0-2 AS Roma The model was heavily vindicated here, accurately projecting an AS Roma win, the visitors to score first, a clean sheet for at least one side, a half-time and full-time sweep, and the exact 0-2 scoreline.
Inter 5-3 Udinese A high-confidence projection for an Inter win landed in this eight-goal contest, which also provided our only successful total goals call of the weekend.
What we got wrong
The model's most glaring miss was the expectation that Juventus would dispatch Sassuolo. Juventus arrived with two clean sheets and just one goal conceded in three matches, boasting the tightest defence in the division. The projection leaned heavily on that solidity extending against a Sassuolo side that had only played once at the Mapei Stadium. Instead, the match produced five goals and a home victory, completely upending the forecast for a low-scoring Juventus win.
Similarly, the expectation of a tight, tactical affair between Atalanta and Cagliari missed the mark on the result. While Cagliari did arrive with a stellar defensive record, shipping just once in three games, our model believed Atalanta's home advantage would see them through. Instead, Cagliari found the net twice, defying their own lack of attacking threat to secure an unexpected victory.
Matchweek 4 proved that early-season defensive records can vanish quickly, as Juventus found out to their detriment. With Roma and Inter continuing their formidable starts to the campaign, the top of the table is taking shape, even as the models adjust to the sudden influx of goals across the Italian division.
