Serie A Matchweek 5 delivered several unexpected turns across ten fixtures, headlined by a thrilling 2-2 draw between AS Roma and Inter that halted both sides' perfect starts to the campaign. It proved a testing round for our forecasting model in the headline categories, correctly projecting only three of the ten match results, though opening goal predictions proved remarkably reliable across the weekend.
How our forecasts did
The exact scoreline calls suffered a complete blank, with zero of the ten projections landing. Match result calls fared poorly as well, with only three of the ten calls coming through after a flurry of draws and unexpected home victories disrupted expectations. The half-time and full-time calls also found the going difficult, landing just two of ten.
Both teams to score finished below even, with four of the ten calls proving accurate. Win or draw calls steadied the record, landing six of ten, while total goals also delivered six correct calls from ten fixtures. The model's strongest area was identifying who would strike first: eight of the ten first team to score calls landed.
Results
Monza opened the round with a 2-1 win over Sassuolo, earning their first victory of the season despite our forecast calling for a draw. The call for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals in the match both landed successfully.
Bologna were held to a 1-1 draw by Torino at home. Our forecast anticipated a Bologna victory, which missed, but our calls for Bologna to win or draw, fewer than 2.5 goals in the match, and Bologna to score the opening goal were all correct.
Cagliari collected a 1-0 away victory at Udinese. The model had favoured a home win, but it accurately anticipated fewer than 2.5 goals, a winner either way with the draw least likely, and Cagliari to score the opening goal.
AS Roma and Inter shared the points in an entertaining 2-2 draw. The model missed on an outright Roma victory, but the projections for more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and Roma to open the scoring all proved accurate.
Lazio secured a comfortable 2-0 away win against Venezia. Our firm call for a Lazio victory landed as expected, alongside successful calls for Lazio to win or draw, Lazio to score the opening goal, and at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet.
Fiorentina held Napoli to a 1-1 draw. While our projection favoured an away win, the model correctly called Napoli to win or draw, fewer than 2.5 goals in the match, and Napoli to score first.
Frosinone caused the shock of the weekend by defeating Como 2-0. The model had placed firm faith in Como, but every single forecast on this fixture missed as the hosts dominated.
Parma edged Genoa 2-1 in a clash where the model anticipated a low-scoring draw. The projection for Parma to open the scoring was correct, but calls for under 2.5 goals and a split of the points missed entirely.
Juventus delivered a solid 2-0 home victory against Atalanta. The model correctly called a Juventus win, Juventus to win or draw, Juventus to score first, and the home side to lead at the break and win the match.
AC Milan wrapped up the weekend with a comprehensive 3-0 victory over Lecce. The model enjoyed a near-perfect showing on this match, correctly forecasting a Milan win, Milan to win or draw, more than 2.5 goals, at least one side kept off the scoresheet, Milan to strike first, and the home side to lead at half-time and full-time.
What we got wrong
The most notable failure of the round came at Frosinone, where the model backed Como with high confidence. Como entered the weekend unbeaten through four rounds, scoring regularly on their travels with their aggressive shape, while Frosinone had managed only one victory on their own turf. Instead, Frosinone shut out Como's attack entirely and produced two goals of their own, handing the model a clean sweep of incorrect calls on the fixture.
The meeting between Parma and Genoa also completely defied expectations. Entering the contest, both clubs had scored just two goals across their opening four rounds, and their previous three encounters had all finished goalless. Relying on those stubborn attacking numbers, the model projected a 0-0 stalemate and under 2.5 goals. Instead, Parma and Genoa combined for three goals, leaving every goals and result call empty aside from Parma scoring first.
Matchweek 5 tightened the top of the Serie A standings, as Roma and Inter surrendered their flawless records while Juventus, AC Milan, and Lazio took full advantage with shutout victories.
