Matchweek 3 of the Scottish Premiership delivered a decisive 2-0 away victory for Dundee in the Tannadice derby, while Aberdeen produced a commanding four-goal performance on the road. Across the three fixtures where our model issued projections, it was a largely positive round, correctly calling the match result in two games and accurately pinning down a tight exact scoreline at Ibrox.
How our forecasts did
The model also saw two of its three projections land correctly across the win or draw, total goals, both teams to score, and first team to score categories. The standout success was in the exact scoreline projections, where one of the three calls landed perfectly. The only market to completely falter was the half-time and full-time category, where zero of the three graded calls proved correct.
Results
Dundee Utd 0-2 Dundee The model cautiously backed a home victory for Dundee Utd, but the visitors took the derby spoils. Dundee built on the defensive resilience they showed in their previous outing to secure a 2-0 win.
Rangers 1-0 ST Mirren St Mirren arrived with a perfect away record and having yet to concede on the road, while Rangers were looking to bounce back from a rare home league defeat. Our model projected a firm Rangers victory and perfectly anticipated the 1-0 exact scoreline.
ST Johnstone 0-1 Celtic Celtic travelled to Perth as the league's only perfect side. Despite St Johnstone's recent run of scoring three goals per game at home, the champions ground out a 1-0 win. Our model firmly and correctly projected a Celtic victory and for them to score the opening goal.
Falkirk 2-1 Heart Of Midlothian Falkirk secured maximum points at home, edging past Heart of Midlothian in a 2-1 victory.
Hibernian 0-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock went on the road and took a narrow but vital 1-0 win against Hibernian.
Motherwell 0-4 Aberdeen Aberdeen swept Motherwell aside with a dominant 4-0 away performance, controlling the match from start to finish.
What we got wrong
The most notable miss of the round came in the first Dundee derby of the season. Our model leaned towards a Dundee Utd victory, noting that they had steadied the ship with a home draw following a heavy 4-0 defeat at Ibrox. Instead, it was Dundee who found their rhythm first, continuing the momentum from a recent clean sheet at Dens Park to take a 2-0 away win and leaving our match result and exact scoreline calls incorrect.
Elsewhere, while the model correctly projected a Celtic win at McDiarmid Park, it misread the shape of the match. The firm projection for more than 2.5 goals and for both teams to score failed to materialize. The model leaned heavily into St Johnstone's recent lively home fixtures—which had featured back-to-back wins with three goals per game—but Celtic's defence held firm to restrict the hosts in a tight 1-0 contest.
As the table begins to take shape, Aberdeen's emphatic away form and Celtic's flawless start have set a high early standard, while Dundee's crucial derby victory provides an immediate lift for their campaign.
