Sao Paulo vs Santos

Sao Paulo face Santos in Serie A on Friday, 2 October 2026 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi) in São Paulo, São Paulo, with the visitors contending with eight confirmed absences.

Eight absentees disrupt the visiting squad

Santos travel across the state capital without several regular contributors. Neymar, A. Barreal, and Vinicius Lira are sidelined through injury, while Luan Peres and Gabriel Bontempo serve suspensions. Coutinho, Gabriel Brazao, and Willian Arao are also not in the squad.

Sao Paulo have notable absences of their own. Striker Jonathan Calleri is out through suspension, while Lucas Moura and Lucca Marques are unavailable through injury. D. Bobadilla is not in the squad, and defender D. Duarte remains doubtful with an injury. Forward Luciano leads the home club's scoring charts with 8 goals in all competitions this season.

Santos arrive on a four-game league winning run

Despite their depleted ranks, Santos have put together four consecutive victories in Serie A. They won 2-1 away at Remo on 19 September 2026, beat Cruzeiro 2-1 at home on 13 September, took a 3-2 victory away at Internacional on 6 September, and earned a 1-0 away win against Corinthians on 30 August.

The visitors sit 8th in the Serie A table with 38 points from 27 matches, scoring 41 goals and conceding 40. Top scorer Gabriel Barbosa leads their attack with 11 goals in all competitions. Away from home in the league, Santos have won 4, drawn 4, and lost 5 of their 13 matches.

Sao Paulo hold eight home league victories

Sao Paulo enter the fixture in 11th place with 36 points from 27 games, having scored 32 goals and allowed 30. Their form at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi) has provided the bulk of their points, with 8 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats from 13 Serie A home matches, scoring 21 and conceding 10.

Their recent league sequence includes three straight home wins: 1-0 against Internacional on 20 September 2026, 2-0 against Atlético Mineiro on 5 September, and 2-1 over RB Bragantino on 29 August. In chance quality across their last five matches with recorded data, Sao Paulo have produced 1.33 expected goals per game while allowing 0.99, compared to Santos generating 1.32 and conceding 0.97.

Our model expects a Sao Paulo win

Our model expects a Sao Paulo win, giving medium confidence to a home victory. Sao Paulo's record of 8 wins in 13 home league games, combined with the loss of eight Santos players to injury and suspension, underpins the call, even as Santos's four-match Serie A winning streak provides a stiff counterweight.