Santos vs Flamengo

Santos host league leaders Flamengo in Serie A on Thursday, 8 October 2026 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, with both sides carrying five-match winning runs into the contest.

Both sides enter on five-match winning runs

Santos have strung together five consecutive league victories, most recently winning 2-1 away at São Paulo on 2 October. That sequence also includes a 2-1 win at Remo on 19 September, a 2-1 home victory over Cruzeiro on 13 September, a 3-2 success at Internacional on 6 September, and a 1-0 win at Corinthians on 30 August. Those results have placed Santos eighth in Serie A with 41 points from 28 matches.

Flamengo arrive at the top of the table with 60 points from 28 games and a goal difference of +32. The league leaders have matched Santos with five straight wins of their own: beating RB Bragantino 2-1 on 20 September, Corinthians 2-1 on 13 September, Remo 1-0 on 6 September, Mirassol 2-0 on 2 September, and Botafogo 3-0 on 30 August.

Flamengo missing six players including De Arrascaeta

Flamengo travel to Santos without six squad members. Playmaker Giorgian De Arrascaeta is sidelined after undergoing surgery on a fractured left wrist, while Ayrton Lucas, Evertton Araújo, and Gonzalo Plata remain out with injuries. Guillermo Varela and Anthony Valencia are also unavailable due to international duty. The visitors still have top scorer Pedro Guilherme, who has 16 goals across all competitions this season.

Santos have three confirmed absences of their own, with Arthur, Gabriel Brazão, and Vinicius Lira ruled out by injury. Top scorer Gabriel Barbosa leads their frontline, having scored 13 goals in all competitions this season.

Underlying chance quality separates the two attacks

While both clubs have collected maximum points over the last five rounds, the underlying performance data shows a clear gap. Over their last five matches with chance data, Flamengo produced 2.29 expected goals a game and allowed only 0.55. Santos generated 1.20 expected goals a game across their last five while conceding 1.29.

Flamengo also bring an away record of eight wins, three draws, and three defeats from 14 trips in the competition, scoring 27 goals and conceding 13. At Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos have won six, drawn four, and lost four of their 14 home league fixtures.

Our model expects a Flamengo win

Our model expects a Flamengo win. The visitors won the earlier meeting this season 3-1 on 5 April 2026 and have taken the last two head-to-head fixtures. Despite missing six players, Flamengo hold a 19-point lead over Santos in the standings and maintain a dominant expected goals differential across recent outings.