Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: Visitors Missing Eight Men

CruzeiroCRU

Kaio Jorge 44'
Zé Lucas 57'

Serie A

2–0

Full Time

HT 1–0

Estádio Mineirão

Belo Horizonte

Sao PauloSAO

AI ForecastsGraded

Match of the day · free full analysis

Cruzeiro are building momentum in the top half of the Serie A table behind a run of seven wins in ten outings, and they return to a Mineirão where they have won three on the bounce. São Paulo travel with a squad decimated by injury — as many as five regular starters are missing, including leading scorer Luciano — which exacerbates an already wretched away record of just two wins from fourteen road trips. The visitors' lack of goal threat on their travels meets a Cruzeiro defence that has been far from watertight, but the home side's consistent scoring at this ground should be enough to dictate the contest.

Match ResultHome Win50%

Cruzeiro have won seven of their last ten, including three straight at home, while a São Paulo side missing five regular starters and a top scorer has lost nine of fourteen on the road.

Win or DrawHome or Draw77%

São Paulo's away form reads only two wins all season, and with their attacking leader sidelined, avoiding defeat in Belo Horizonte looks a tall order; Cruzeiro have lost just three home matches.

Total Goals2 or fewer goals51%

São Paulo's recent away games have delivered over 2.5 goals only once in four, and they are without their primary goal threat; the last two meetings at this venue ended 1-0 and 0-1.

Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo: Visitors Missing Eight Men

Published Wed 7 Oct

Cruzeiro host Sao Paulo in Serie A on Thursday, 8 October 2026, at Estádio Mineirão in Belo Horizonte, with the visitors travelling under the weight of nine away league defeats this season.

Sao Paulo travel without Luciano and seven others

Sao Paulo sit 10th in the table with 36 points from 28 matches, but their travels have yielded little return. Across 14 away games in Serie A, they have won twice, drawn three times, and lost nine, scoring just 11 goals while conceding 20. Their last trip ended in a 2-0 defeat away at Palmeiras on 12 September 2026, followed most recently by a 2-1 home loss against Santos on 2 October 2026.

The challenge is compounded by eight confirmed injuries. Joint-top scorer Luciano, who has nine goals in all competitions this season, is sidelined alongside Lucas Moura, Rafael, Nicolas, Iago, Domingos Duarte, Danielzinho, and Aurélio Buta. Midfielder Marcos Antônio is also doubtful with an injury, stripping away options across every line for the away side.

Cruzeiro hold ground at Estádio Mineirão

Cruzeiro occupy sixth place with 45 points and enter the fixture following a 3-1 away win at Vitoria on 20 September 2026. At Estádio Mineirão, they have produced seven wins, four draws, and three defeats in 14 league matches, scoring 24 goals and allowing 16. Their last two home matches produced a 3-1 victory against Atletico Paranaense on 6 September 2026 and a 2-1 win over Flamengo on 22 August 2026.

Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro's scoring with nine goals in all competitions. While the hosts are without the injured Gabriel Pec and Luis Sinisterra, with Kenji and Lucas Daniel Romero listed as doubtful, their underlying chance numbers remain steady. Over their last five matches with chance data, Cruzeiro generated 1.49 expected goals per game while allowing 1.67.

Our model expects a Cruzeiro win

Our model expects a Cruzeiro win. Sao Paulo defeated Cruzeiro 4-1 when the teams met on 4 April 2026, but the visitors' record of nine away losses and an injury list containing Luciano and Lucas Moura heavily weigh against them at Estádio Mineirão.

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
6	Cruzeiro	30	2	48
10	Sao Paulo	30	0	39

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
6	Cruzeiro	30	2	48
10	Sao Paulo	30	0	39

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