Celtic vs Rangers: Five-Point Gap at the Summit
Updated
Celtic host Rangers in the Premiership on Sunday, 20 September 2026 at Celtic Park in Glasgow, entering the derby with a perfect 18 points from six league fixtures and a five-point lead over their second-placed rivals.
Celtic maintain perfect 18 points from six games
Celtic have opened their domestic league campaign with six consecutive victories, scoring 14 goals and conceding three. At Celtic Park in the Premiership, they have won all three fixtures, scoring six times and conceding just once. Their most recent domestic outing was a 1-0 victory away at ST Johnstone on 9 September 2026, following a 2-1 win at ST Mirren and a 3-0 home triumph over Aberdeen. They did suffer their first competitive defeat of the campaign on 17 September 2026, falling 1-3 at home to Ferencvarosi TC in the UEFA Europa League. Top scorer Camilo Durán leads the Celtic attack with five goals across all competitions, fronting an offense that generates 1.28 expected goals per game while allowing 0.43.
Rangers answer with four consecutive domestic wins
Rangers sit second in the table with 13 points from six matches, having recorded seven goals scored and four conceded. In their three away fixtures in the Premiership, they remain unbeaten with two wins and a draw, scoring four and allowing two. Since falling 0-1 away to FK Jablonec in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 27 August 2026, the away side responded with four straight domestic league victories: 1-0 against Aberdeen, 2-1 at Falkirk, 1-0 over Motherwell, and 1-0 against ST Mirren on 9 September 2026. Top scorer Lawrence Shankland has three goals across all competitions, leading a side creating 1.09 expected goals per game while conceding 0.61.
Our model expects a Celtic win
Our forecasting model expects a Celtic win, reflecting medium confidence. That projection is supported by Celtic's domestic run of six consecutive victories and an underlying profile of 1.28 expected goals created to 0.43 allowed. Rangers bring an unbeaten away record in the Premiership and three clean sheets from their last four league matches, alongside memories of their 3-1 victory at Celtic Park on 3 January 2026. However, Celtic took the most recent derby 3-1 on 10 May 2026, and their domestic consistency gives them the edge heading into Sunday.
