Scottish Premiership Matchweek 7 delivered a dramatic weekend of action headlined by Rangers taking a 1-0 victory against Celtic at Celtic Park. For our forecasting model, it was a difficult round on the outright calls, with only one correct match result call across the six fixtures, though projections on goals and win-or-draw calls held up better.
How our forecasts did
Outright projections struggled badly this weekend. In the match result topic, only one of the six calls landed, making it the round's weakest category. Exact scoreline projections and half-time and full-time forecasts mirrored that return, each finishing with one correct call from six graded. Projections on the first team to score also found the going tough, with two of the six calls proving accurate.
By contrast, broader calls fared much better. Both the win or draw category and both teams to score led the way, each recording four correct calls out of six. Total goals settled in the middle, producing three correct calls from six graded.
Results
Dundee opened the weekend with a 2-1 victory over Motherwell. The home side were on a two-match winning run before kickoff, and our model anticipated a home win, hitting all seven calls on the fixture, including the exact 2-1 scoreline.
Hibernian were held to a 1-1 draw by Aberdeen. Our forecast projected a home win that failed to arrive, though our calls for Hibernian to win or draw and for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match were both correct.
ST Johnstone and Falkirk finished level at 1-1. The model missed on a home victory and on the opening goalscorer, but was right to call ST Johnstone to win or draw, fewer than 2.5 goals, and both teams to score.
ST Mirren suffered a heavy 0-3 defeat at home against Dundee Utd. The model anticipated a home victory based on the hosts' strong defensive metrics, meaning almost all calls missed aside from at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet.
Kilmarnock held visiting Heart Of Midlothian to a 1-1 draw. The projection favoured a Hearts win that did not materialise, but the model correctly anticipated Heart Of Midlothian to score the opening goal, Heart Of Midlothian to win or draw, and both teams to score.
Celtic fell 0-1 to Rangers in the Sunday fixture. The model backed the league leaders to score first and win at home, but an organised defensive effort from the visitors produced a clean sweep of misses across our seven projections for the fixture.
What we got wrong
The most notable failure came at Celtic Park, where the model took Celtic to win after an unbeaten start in which they controlled possession at an average of 61 percent over their previous five matches. Rangers had conceded three goals on their previous league visit to the ground, yet they kept Celtic scoreless and snatched the decisive goal against expectations.
The projection at The SMISA Stadium also missed the reality of the game entirely. ST Mirren had conceded only six goals in six matches before the weekend, carrying an expected goals against figure of 0.75 per match over their prior five fixtures. Instead of another disciplined display, their defensive organisation buckled as Dundee Utd struck three unanswered goals to run away with all three points.
Hearts were also expected to take maximum points at Rugby Park against a Kilmarnock team sitting bottom of the table without a win in five. Instead, the league leaders could only leave with a 1-1 draw, cutting short their four-match winning streak.
This round closed the gap at the summit of the Premiership table. Rangers' derby triumph ended Celtic's perfect start, while Hearts' draw left them unable to pull further clear, ensuring the title race remains tightly bunched as autumn takes hold.
