Moreirense vs Gil Vicente

Moreirense host Gil Vicente in the Primeira Liga on Friday 9 October 2026 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Moreira de Conegos, with both clubs level on eight points.

Moreirense concede 1.80 expected goals a game

Moreirense enter Matchweek 8 in 12th place having played seven matches, scoring eight goals and conceding 14. Over their last five fixtures with chance data, they have generated 0.81 expected goals per match while conceding 1.80. Their home record in the competition stands at one win, one draw and one loss from three matches, with five goals scored and seven conceded.

Their recent run includes a 1-1 draw away at Vitória SC on 20 September 2026 and a 3-1 home victory over Maritimo on 14 September 2026. Prior to that, Moreirense suffered two consecutive defeats, losing 4-0 at home against Benfica on 9 September 2026 and 2-1 away at FC Porto on 4 September 2026. They report no injury absences ahead of Friday's game.

Gil Vicente miss three injured players

Gil Vicente occupy ninth place in the Primeira Liga with eight points from six games and an even goal difference of five goals scored and five conceded. However, the visitors are without a league victory on the road this season, recording one draw and one defeat from two away fixtures while scoring once and conceding three times.

They will be without Arthur Tchaptchet, Mohamed Bamba, and Walace França, who are all ruled out through injury. The away side relies on top scorer Héctor Hernández, who has registered three goals across all competitions this season. Gil Vicente's underlying numbers show 1.29 expected goals created per game against 1.08 conceded over their last five matches with data, but results have slowed: after beating Casa Pia 2-0 on 24 August 2026 and drawing 0-0 at Famalicao on 30 August 2026, they lost 1-0 to Academico Viseu, fell 3-1 at Benfica, and drew 1-1 with Maritimo on 19 September 2026.

Gil Vicente won the last two meetings

The visitors hold the edge in recent encounters between the two sides, winning 2-1 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas on 7 February 2026 and 2-0 on 29 August 2025. Moreirense last defeated Gil Vicente on 6 April 2025 with a 1-0 away victory, following a 3-2 home win on 8 November 2024. Across the last five head-to-head fixtures, Gil Vicente have taken three victories to Moreirense's two.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Gil Vicente win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Gil Vicente win. Gil Vicente hold superior underlying metrics, creating 1.29 expected goals per game compared to Moreirense's 0.81, and they have won the previous two meetings between the clubs. However, Gil Vicente's lack of an away league victory this season and the absence of Tchaptchet, Bamba, and França keep the assessment cautious.