Primeira Liga Matchweek 8 wrapped up with the league leaders keeping their footing, highlighted by Sporting CP winning 3-1 at SC Braga and Benfica taking a 2-0 win over Vitória SC, while Alverca produced the shock of the round with a 4-1 away victory against Famalicao. Across the nine fixtures, our forecasting model enjoyed a strong weekend on outright outcomes, picking eight winners correctly, though more specific calls proved harder to pinpoint.
How our forecasts did
The half-time and full-time topic struggled the most this round, with only three of the nine calls landing as early match patterns broke away from projected scripts. Total goals calls also had mixed success, finishing with five correct out of nine, matched by the first team to score topic which also saw five of nine projections hit the mark.
The outright calls led the way. Both the match result and win or draw topics recorded eight correct calls from nine fixtures, missing only on the final match of the weekend. Both teams to score also returned a strong return, landing seven of nine calls. Exact scoreline projections were unusually sharp, with four of the nine match scores called correctly down to the exact goal count.
Results
Moreirense 0-1 Gil Vicente opened the round on Friday, where the call for a Gil Vicente win landed along with the exact scoreline projection after Moreirense's recent defensive vulnerabilities showed again.
SC Braga 1-3 Sporting CP followed, with the forecast correctly projecting a Sporting CP win, both teams to score, and more than 2.5 goals as the visitors maintained their scoring form.
Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto saw Porto maintain their perfect run of league form, landing our match result call and the projection of more than 2.5 goals, though Maritimo getting on the scoresheet spoiled the clean-sheet projection.
Academico Viseu 2-1 Estoril saw the home side capitalize on Estoril's difficult start to the season, delivering on our match result call, both teams to score, and Academico Viseu leading at the interval.
Casa Pia 0-1 Santa Clara went entirely to script, as the model correctly called a Santa Clara win, fewer than 2.5 goals, at least one side kept off the scoresheet, and the 0-1 exact scoreline.
Rio Ave 3-2 Nacional turned into an unexpectedly open contest where Rio Ave secured the points to fulfill our match result call, though the five-goal total wiped out our projection of fewer than 2.5 goals.
Benfica 2-0 Vitória SC saw the hosts dominate to deliver our high-confidence match result call, the exact scoreline, and the call for Benfica to hold a half-time lead before winning.
Arouca 1-0 Estrela also hit the projected final scoreline and outright winner, with Arouca scoring the opening goal and preserving their lead, even as the fixture fell short of the projected open scoring.
Famalicao 1-4 Alverca closed the round on Monday with a heavy away win, completely overturning our projection of a home victory.
What we got wrong
The clearest failure of the weekend came on Monday night when Famalicao were swept aside 4-1 by Alverca. The model backed Carlos Carvalhal's side to take the points based on their resilience and ability to start games sharply, while expecting a low-scoring match of fewer than 2.5 goals. That assessment underestimated how much Famalicao would miss Roméo Beney through suspension and Tommie van de Looi through injury, while Alverca tore through the hosts to produce a four-goal display that dismantled nearly every projection on the fixture.
The total goals calls also misjudged the game state in Vila do Conde, where Rio Ave and Nacional shared five goals despite neither side demonstrating fluid attacking form leading into the match.
Moving forward
Matchweek 8 solidified the position of the frontrunners, with FC Porto, Sporting CP, and Benfica each taking full points from their respective fixtures. Further down the standings, Alverca's emphatic away victory creates breathing room near the bottom, leaving Estoril rooted without a win as the campaign approaches its next phase.
