AS Roma vs Real Madrid: Four Madrid Absentees

AS RomaROM

Marten de Roon 20'
Donyell Malen 51', 57'

UEFA Champions League

3–4

Full Time

HT 1–1

Stadio Olimpico

Roma

Real MadridREA

Kylian Mbappé 25'
Carlos Espí 82'
Endrick 85'
Antonio Rüdiger 90'

AI ForecastsGraded

Roma host Real Madrid in a fixture that pits a well-organised, defensively solid home side against a visitor with far greater attacking quality. Roma are unbeaten in their last five and have conceded very little recently, but they lose their first-choice goalkeeper Mile Svilar…

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Match Stats

Top Stats

1.44xG1.88

54%Possession46%

14 (7)Shots (on target)16 (8)

3Big Chances Created2

Attacking Play

1.82xG on Target2.25

1.14Expected Assists (xA)0.79

50Final Third Entries46

26Penalty Area Entries23

Possession & Passing

546 · 86%Passes (accuracy)459 · 84%

5Corners9

20Poss. Won — Def 3rd14

17Poss. Won — Mid 3rd22

Duels & Pressing

34 (42%)Duels Won47 (58%)

8 (53%)Aerial Duels Won7 (47%)

50Ball Recoveries47

15.5PPDA (Pressing)15.5

Defending & Discipline

4Saves4

15Fouls8

-1.75Goals Prevented-1.18

AS Roma vs Real Madrid: Four Madrid Absentees

Published Wed 14 Oct

AS Roma face Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at the Stadio Olimpico in Roma. The visitors enter Matchweek 2 missing four senior players, while the hosts look to build on an unbeaten five-match sequence across all competitions.

Real Madrid travel without four injured players

Real Madrid arrive in Italy with several roster adjustments, as Ferland Mendy, Raúl Asencio, Rodrygo, and Éder Militao are all ruled out with injuries. Despite those absences, top scorer Kylian Mbappé leads the attack, having scored 8 goals in all competitions this season. Across their last five matches with chance data, Real Madrid have generated 2.11 expected goals while conceding 1.36. Domestically, they earned a 1-0 win against Villarreal on 10 October 2026, preceded by a 2-1 defeat at Atletico Madrid on 20 September 2026, a 3-2 victory at Elche on 15 September 2026, and a 4-1 win over Rayo Vallecano on 12 September 2026.

AS Roma are five games unbeaten but lose Svilar and Cristante

AS Roma enter the contest on a five-match unbeaten run across all competitions. That run includes a 0-0 draw at Como on 11 October 2026, a 2-2 home draw with Inter on 19 September 2026, a 2-0 victory at Torino on 14 September 2026, and a 2-1 home victory against Atalanta on 5 September 2026. However, the Italian club will be without goalkeeper Mile Svilar and midfielder Bryan Cristante due to injuries. Donyell Malen remains their main scoring threat with 6 goals in all competitions this season, supported by a chance creation rate of 1.64 expected goals per game and 1.39 expected goals allowed.

Our model expects a Real Madrid win

Our forecasting model expects a Real Madrid win, placing medium confidence behind the call. Real Madrid sit 16th in the 36-team Champions League table after opening the tournament with a 2-1 home win over Inter on 8 September 2026. AS Roma occupy 22nd place following a 1-1 away draw against Fenerbahçe on 10 September 2026. While Real Madrid must manage defensive and attacking absences, their higher underlying output of 2.11 expected goals per match supports the forecast against a Roma side missing their starting goalkeeper.

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