Villarreal vs Napoli: Six Injury Concerns for Away Side
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Villarreal meet Napoli in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, 13 October 2026 at Estadio de la Cerámica, with the Italian visitors arriving depleted by six injury concerns. Both clubs sit on zero points after opening their European campaigns with defeats in September.
Napoli arrive with six players sidelined or doubtful
The Italian club enter matchweek two following a 3-0 victory against Frosinone on 10 October 2026, but their squad depth faces an immediate test in Spain. Alessandro Buongiorno, Alisson Santos, Antonio Vergara, Costantino Favasuli, and Mathías Olivera are all ruled out through injury, while Frank Anguissa is doubtful. Napoli sit 28th in the UEFA Champions League table after a 0-1 home defeat to Arsenal on 9 September 2026, leaving them without a European goal this season. Midfielder Kevin De Bruyne leads their scoring charts across all competitions with three goals, but defensive absences present a challenge. Across their last five fixtures with chance data, Napoli have allowed 2.02 expected goals per game while generating 1.81.
Villarreal generate 2.24 expected goals per match
Villarreal sit 21st in the league phase table following an opening 2-3 defeat away at Borussia Dortmund on 8 September 2026. The Spanish club have produced an average of 2.24 expected goals across their last five recorded fixtures, conceding 1.69 at the other end. That attacking output helped secure 3-1 domestic victories against Malaga on 17 September 2026 and Levante on 20 September 2026 before a 0-1 defeat away at Real Madrid on 10 October 2026. The home side have their own personnel issues in wide positions, with Nicolas Pépé and Tajon Buchanan both ruled out by injury. Midfielder Pape Gueye is the club's leading scorer across all competitions this season with three goals.
Our model leans towards a Villarreal win
Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Villarreal win. That projection reflects the home side's superior attacking chance generation, with Villarreal producing 2.24 expected goals per match against Napoli's 1.81. Napoli's record of conceding 2.02 expected goals per match, combined with defensive absences for Buongiorno and Olivera alongside Anguissa's doubtful status, provides an edge for the home side. The low confidence rating accounts for Villarreal's recent 0-1 defeat to Real Madrid and the absences of Pépé and Buchanan.
