Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: United Depleted

Atletico MadridATM

Pablo Barrios 1'
Ademola Lookman 79'

UEFA Champions League

2–0

Full Time

HT 1–0

Metropolitano Stadium

Madrid

Manchester UnitedMUN

Sent off:Leny Yoro 74'

AI ForecastsGraded

Atletico Madrid host Manchester United at the Metropolitano after losing their opening league-stage match, while United arrive on the back of a 4-0 home win. Diego Simeone's side have been sharp in recent weeks, with a three-game winning run and underlying chance creation that…

Match ResultHome Win49%

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Re-forecast the moment the match changes: every goal, every red card, and at half-time.

Match Stats

Top Stats

1.75xG0.98

58%Possession42%

11 (5)Shots (on target)9 (4)

1Big Chances Created4

Attacking Play

2.33xG on Target0.77

0.77Expected Assists (xA)0.66

68Final Third Entries48

15Penalty Area Entries20

Possession & Passing

652 · 89%Passes (accuracy)466 · 85%

2Corners5

21Poss. Won — Def 3rd15

17Poss. Won — Mid 3rd20

Duels & Pressing

25 (36%)Duels Won45 (64%)

4 (44%)Aerial Duels Won5 (56%)

48Ball Recoveries47

12.9PPDA (Pressing)16.2

Defending & Discipline

4Saves3

11Fouls13

+0.77Goals Prevented+0.33

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: United Depleted

Published Tue 13 Oct

Atletico Madrid meet Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, 13 October 2026 at the Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid, with the visitors missing six players through injury.

Manchester United without six injured players

The away side enter matchweek two dealing with substantial squad issues. Benjamin Šeško, Kobbie Mainoo, Luke Shaw, Manuel Ugarte, Patrick Dorgu and Tom Heaton are all ruled out through injury. In addition, defenders Matthijs de Ligt and Noussair Mazraoui remain doubtful. Manchester United sit fourth in the Champions League table after a 4-0 win over Sabah FA on 10 September 2026, but their domestic form has slowed. They arrive on the back of consecutive 1-1 draws against Fulham on 20 September 2026 and Tottenham on 10 October 2026, alongside home defeats to Manchester City (0-1 on 13 September 2026) and Brighton (2-3 on 16 September 2026). Bruno Fernandes leads their scoring with 4 goals this season across all competitions.

Atletico Madrid have won four domestic matches in a row

The home side sit 25th in the league stage following a 1-2 loss away to Liverpool on 9 September 2026, but their form in Spain has been immaculate since. Atletico Madrid have won four straight La Liga matches, scoring 11 times. That streak includes a 3-0 victory at Real Sociedad on 13 September 2026, a 4-0 home win against Osasuna on 16 September 2026, a 2-1 derby win over Real Madrid on 20 September 2026, and a 2-1 victory at Alaves on 10 October 2026. Álex Baena shares the individual scoring lead for the fixture with 4 goals across all competitions this season.

Atletico Madrid create 2.26 expected goals a game

Underlying numbers show a distinct gap between the sides. Over their last 5 matches with chance data, Atletico Madrid have generated 2.26 expected goals a game while conceding only 0.77. Manchester United have produced 1.65 expected goals a game in their last 5 matches with chance data, but they have allowed 1.45.

Our model expects an Atletico Madrid win

Our model expects an Atletico Madrid win. The forecast reflects Atletico Madrid's run of four consecutive league victories and their underlying rate of 2.26 expected goals generated per match against 0.77 allowed, contrasted with Manchester United's list of six confirmed injury absences and two draws in their last two outings.

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