Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus

Marseille face Olympiakos Piraeus in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, 15 October 2026, at the Stade Vélodrome, with the hosts looking to recover from an opening 4-1 loss to Beşiktaş.

Marseille halt four-match losing run

Marseille entered October after a difficult September run before securing a 2-0 away win against Estac Troyes on 11 October 2026. Prior to that victory, the club suffered four consecutive defeats: 3-2 against Paris FC on 6 September, 1-0 at Rennes on 11 September, 4-1 at Beşiktaş on 17 September, and 2-1 against Paris Saint Germain on 20 September.

In continental competition, Marseille sit 32nd in the 36-team standings after that three-goal defeat in Istanbul. Over their last five fixtures with underlying data, they created 1.29 expected goals per game while allowing 2.59. Top scorer Amine Gouiri leads the forward line with four goals across all competitions this season, but midfielder Pierre-Emile Højbjerg and defender Derek Cornelius remain out of action through injury.

Olympiakos bring three straight wins without El Kaabi

Olympiakos Piraeus arrive at the Stade Vélodrome on a run of three consecutive victories. The Greek side defeated Jagiellonia 2-1 in their Europa League opener on 16 September 2026, then recorded back-to-back 1-0 league wins away at Levadiakos on 20 September and at home to Panathinaikos on 11 October.

Defensively, Olympiakos have conceded only 0.52 expected goals per game across their last five matches while generating 1.46. They sit 13th in the Europa League table with three points and a plus-one goal difference. The visitors travel without two key attackers, as Ayoub El Kaabi and Yusuf Yazıcı are both sidelined through injury. Jota Silva is their primary scorer this season with two goals in all competitions.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Marseille win

Our model leans narrowly towards a Marseille win on Thursday. The assessment reflects home advantage at the Stade Vélodrome and Amine Gouiri's scoring form, supported by the clean sheet earned at Estac Troyes. The confidence rating remains low, however, balanced against an Olympiakos defence that has conceded just once across its last three outings while Marseille have allowed 2.59 expected goals a match.