Estac Troyes vs Marseille: Both in the Bottom Three

Estac TroyesTRO

Ligue 1

0–2

Full Time

HT 0–0

Stade de l'Aube

Troyes

MarseilleMAR

Amine Harit 50'
Himad Abdelli 90+8' (pen)

AI ForecastsGraded

Troyes host Marseille with both sides struggling for results in the opening weeks. Troyes have shipped eleven goals in five games and created little, with a clear-cut chance rarely coming their way. Marseille have the stronger pedigree and a far more valuable starting XI, though…

Match ResultAway Win49%

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Key facts

Estac Troyes have scored 4 goals in their last 5 matches
Estac Troyes haven't scored in their last 2 matches
Estac Troyes have lost their last 3 matches
Marseille have scored 4 goals in their last 5 matches
Marseille haven't won in their last 5 matches

As they stood before kick-off.

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Estac Troyes vs Marseille: Both in the Bottom Three

Published Sun 11 Oct

Estac Troyes face Marseille in Ligue 1 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stade de l'Aube, with both clubs sitting in the relegation zone after combined losing skids.

Marseille enter on five straight defeats

Marseille sit 17th in the standings with three points from five league matches, having lost each of their last five fixtures in all competitions. That run began with a 2-0 defeat away at Monaco on 30 August, followed by a 3-2 home loss against Paris FC on 6 September, a 1-0 defeat at Rennes on 11 September, a 4-1 loss away at Beşiktaş on 17 September, and a 2-1 home defeat to Paris Saint Germain on 20 September. In Ligue 1 away matches this season, Marseille have yet to score, losing both fixtures while conceding three times. Their defensive numbers show 2.66 expected goals allowed per match across their last five outings.

Troyes concede ten goals across three matches

Estac Troyes sit 16th with four points, holding a single-point margin over the visitors. After picking up four points from their opening two fixtures—including a 0-0 home draw with Paris FC on 22 August and a 2-1 win at Lorient on 29 August—Troyes have lost three consecutive league matches. They fell 6-2 at home to Strasbourg on 6 September, 2-0 at Lille on 13 September, and 2-0 at Angers on 19 September, conceding 10 goals in that three-game span. At Stade de l'Aube, Troyes have collected one point from two matches, scoring twice and conceding six.

Absences mount for both squads

Both managers must reconfigure their selections due to missing personnel. Estac Troyes have four players ruled out through injury: Ismaël Boura, Merwan Ifnaou, Paolo Gozzi, and Yvann Titi. Marseille travel without five players. Amine Harit, Derek Cornelius, Geoffrey Kondogbia, and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg are all sidelined with injuries, while Timothy Weah misses out through suspension. Marseille retain top scorer Amine Gouiri, who has scored four goals in all competitions this season.

Our model expects a Marseille win

Our forecasting model expects a Marseille win with medium confidence. Despite Marseille losing five consecutive matches and Troyes holding home advantage at Stade de l'Aube, the visitors possess top scorer Amine Gouiri and create 1.28 expected goals per game, while Troyes have surrendered 10 goals in their last three league outings.