Slovenia vs Scotland: Visitors Search for Goals
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Slovenia face Scotland in UEFA Nations League League B Matchweek 1 on Saturday, 26 September 2026 at Stadion Stozice in Ljubljana, with the visiting side seeking their first goal in three competitive fixtures.
Scotland enter after consecutive defeats without scoring
Scotland conclude a three-month break following their World Cup campaign in June 2026, where their tournament ended with two consecutive shutout defeats. The Scottish side fell 0-1 at home to Morocco on 19 June 2026 before suffering a 0-3 defeat at home to Brazil on 24 June 2026. Their solitary victory in that three-match sequence came on 14 June 2026, when they secured a 1-0 away win against Haiti.
Those three fixtures highlighted difficulties at both ends of the pitch. Scotland generated an average of 0.81 expected goals per game while surrendering 2.15 expected goals per match to their opponents. New head coach Sébastien Pocognoli has taken charge of an extended 28-player selection for this international window, though the visitors travel to Ljubljana without midfielder Scott McTominay and forward Ché Adams.
Slovenia begin their League B campaign at Stadion Stozice
Slovenia open their group schedule on home soil, aiming to establish an early foothold in League B. The host nation will test a reshuffled Scottish squad featuring first-time international call-ups such as Robbie Ure and Josh McPake, alongside the return of forward Oli McBurnie. With Slovenia staging the fixture in Ljubljana, the home side encounter an opponent that allowed four goals across their past two outings while failing to convert any of their own chances.
Our model leans narrowly towards a Slovenia win
Our model leans narrowly towards a Slovenia win for this opening fixture. That low-confidence call reflects Scotland's recent defensive vulnerabilities, underlined by the 2.15 expected goals allowed per match across their past three competitive games, coupled with back-to-back losses to Morocco and Brazil in June 2026. However, the absence of recent competitive data for Slovenia and the arrival of Sébastien Pocognoli as Scotland's new manager introduce elements of uncertainty at Stadion Stozice.
