Scotland vs Slovenia

Scotland host Slovenia in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at Hampden Park in Glasgow, with both sides tied on four points after their first three Group 1 matches.

Scotland seek home recovery without McKenna

Sébastien Pocognoli's team picked up their first win of the campaign on 3 October 2026, defeating North Macedonia 2-0 away from home. That result followed a difficult start on home soil, where Scotland were beaten 3-0 by Switzerland on 29 September 2026. In their single Nations League home fixture, Scotland have scored zero and conceded three.

Defender Scott McKenna will miss this meeting due to suspension. In attack, John McGinn remains Scotland's primary scorer this season, leading the squad with two goals across all competitions. Over their last five matches with chance data, Scotland have averaged 1.36 expected goals created and 1.60 conceded per game.

Slovenia limited to 0.83 expected goals per game

Slovenia sit second in the table on goal difference ahead of Scotland, having scored three goals and conceded two across their opening three fixtures. After holding Scotland to a 0-0 draw on 26 September 2026 and beating North Macedonia 2-0 on 29 September 2026, they suffered a 2-1 away defeat against Switzerland on 3 October 2026.

In that lone away match in the group, Slovenia failed to take any points. Their underlying numbers show offensive limitations: over their last three matches with available data, Slovenia generated an average of 0.83 expected goals per game while allowing 1.22. They enter this fixture with no reported absences.

Our model expects a Scotland win

Our forecasting model expects a Scotland win at Hampden Park. While Scotland were beaten heavily at home by Switzerland, their average of 1.36 expected goals created per game is substantially higher than Slovenia's 0.83. Slovenia's 2-1 away loss in Switzerland also highlighted difficulties on the road, where they have yet to earn a point in this competition.