Poland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina: Visitors Create 0.52 xG
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Poland face Bosnia & Herzegovina in the UEFA Nations League on Friday, 25 September 2026 at PGE Narodowy in Warsaw, as the visitors arrive having generated an average of only 0.52 expected goals per game.
Bosnia & Herzegovina manage 0.52 expected goals per game
Over their last 4 matches with chance data, Bosnia & Herzegovina have averaged 0.52 expected goals a game created while conceding 1.23 allowed. That lack of cutting edge showed across their recent tournament run in mid-2026, where they scored in only two of their four fixtures.
Their most recent outing ended in a 0-2 defeat away at USA on 2 July 2026. Prior to that loss, they recorded a 3-1 victory at home to Qatar on 24 June 2026, which followed a 1-4 loss away at Switzerland on 18 June 2026 and a 1-1 draw away at Canada on 12 June 2026. Across those four matches, they conceded eight goals.
Ermin Mahmić leads the visiting attack with two goals
Ermin Mahmić represents the primary scoring threat for Bosnia & Herzegovina, leading the side with 2 goals this season in all competitions. Both of those strikes came during their summer schedule, where the attack struggled for consistent output beyond the three-goal display against Qatar.
Poland open their League B campaign at PGE Narodowy with Robert Lewandowski called up to the squad alongside Piotr Zielinski. The hosts enter Matchweek 1 aiming to control proceedings on home turf in Warsaw, where Bosnia & Herzegovina must improve on a run that yielded zero away wins in three attempts across June and July 2026.
Our model expects a Poland win
Our forecasting model expects a Poland win on Friday. The call aligns with the visiting side's attacking output, with Bosnia & Herzegovina producing just 0.52 expected goals per game while allowing 1.23 across their last four matches with chance data.
Bosnia & Herzegovina have also suffered two multi-goal defeats in their past three fixtures, conceding four against Switzerland on 18 June 2026 and two against USA on 2 July 2026. With home advantage at PGE Narodowy and Mahmić carrying the visitors' scoring load with 2 goals, our model points to the home side securing the match result in Warsaw.
