The Bundesliga's Matchweek 2 delivered a string of upsets, headlined by FC Schalke 04 holding a rampant Bayern München to a goalless draw. Our forecasting model had a difficult weekend navigating the surprises, landing fewer than half of its headline match result calls.
How our forecasts did
The model had the most success with the total goals topic, correctly projecting seven of the nine matches to cross the 2.5 goals mark. The win or draw calls returned six of the nine, while the first team to score category yielded five correct calls. The headline match result projections struggled, landing just four of the nine, a tally matched by both teams to score and the half-time and full-time calls. Unsurprisingly in a weekend of shocks, exact scoreline was the worst-performing topic, with all nine forecasts missing the mark.
Friday
VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln Stuttgart rebounded emphatically from their opening-day defeat, validating our medium-confidence forecast for a home win and easily covering the firm projection for more than 2.5 goals.
Saturday
1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia Dortmund Dortmund built on their formidable recent record with a narrow away victory, landing our match result forecast and the firm call for total goals, though they failed to score first as projected.
Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin Leverkusen's attacking threat was on full display in a heavy home win. Our model correctly called a Leverkusen victory and a high-scoring affair, though the visitors failed to uphold the both teams to score forecast.
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 SV Elversberg Newly promoted Elversberg secured a dramatic away win in a seven-goal thriller, upending our call for a Gladbach victory. We did correctly forecast the hosts to score first, though Gladbach's typically watertight home defence eventually collapsed.
Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig Bremen defied a woeful head-to-head record to secure a commanding home win, tearing up our medium-confidence projection for a Leipzig victory. The match did, however, deliver on the firm call for total goals.
SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC Freiburg Freiburg edged a tight encounter to maintain their winning start, validating our cautious match result forecast. However, the lack of goals saw both our firm calls for total goals and both teams to score fall short.
FC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern München Schalke showed massive defensive improvement to shut out Bayern, completely derailing our firm forecast for an away win and a high-scoring match.
Sunday
Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05 Mainz ran riot in Hamburg despite a mounting injury list, making a mockery of our forecast for a home win. The visitors' dominance did land the projection for FSV Mainz 05 ahead at the break and winning it.
Eintracht Frankfurt 1-4 FC Augsburg Augsburg's potent attack secured a comprehensive away victory, defeating our medium-confidence projection for a Frankfurt win. The match successfully delivered on the total goals and both teams to score forecasts.
What we got wrong
The biggest miss of the weekend came at Schalke. Our model had high confidence in a Bayern München victory and more than 2.5 goals, leaning heavily on the champions' opening-day five-goal haul and a brutal head-to-head record that saw Bayern win the last ten meetings by aggregate scores including 6-0 and 8-0. Instead, Schalke's supposedly fragile defensive shape held firm for a resilient 0-0 draw.
Elsewhere, the model placed too much faith in historical struggles and home advantage. Werder Bremen were projected to lose to RB Leipzig on the back of a ten-match winless streak against them, but delivered a 3-1 victory. Hamburger SV's home record against Mainz, highlighted by a 4-0 win last season, fed a projection for a home win, only for Mainz to ignore their midfield injury issues and deliver a 5-0 thrashing. Similarly, Borussia Mönchengladbach's five-match unbeaten home run proved irrelevant as Elversberg's winless away form vanished in a remarkable 4-3 triumph.
Matchweek 2 upended early-season expectations across the Bundesliga, with newly promoted sides scoring freely and established heavyweights stumbling. As the dust settles, the defensive resilience of teams like Schalke and the attacking verve of Mainz and Elversberg will force a recalibration of the data heading into the next round of fixtures.
