Matchweek 3 of the Bundesliga season delivered heavy scorelines and away-day surprises, testing our forecasting model over a challenging weekend. While Borussia Dortmund, SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig all registered commanding home victories, the model struggled to predict outcomes when the form book clashed with early-season underlying numbers.
How our forecasts did
The model's outright calls faltered this weekend, while its projections for goal volumes proved far more reliable. The model correctly called just five of the nine match result projections, and five of the nine win or draw forecasts. It secured five of the nine half-time and full-time calls, and correctly projected two of the nine exact scorelines. Conversely, the goal-based topics performed strongly: eight of the nine total goals projections landed, as did eight of the nine calls for both teams to score. Seven of the nine first team to score forecasts were accurate.
Results
Friday, September 11
Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 secured their first points back in the Bundesliga, punishing a fragile Union Berlin defence. Our cautious call for a home win missed the mark, though the firm projection for more than 2.5 goals proved correct.
Saturday, September 12
Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07 Borussia Dortmund maintained their perfect start with a comfortable victory over a SC Paderborn 07 side battling a lengthy injury list. The model firmly expected a home win and correctly anticipated at least one side being kept off the scoresheet.
1899 Hoffenheim 2-1 VfB Stuttgart Both sides entered the weekend yet to find defensive stability, but 1899 Hoffenheim edged the contest. The model swept the board here, landing a close call for a home victory and perfectly projecting the 2-1 exact scoreline.
SC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach SC Freiburg continued their flying start to the campaign by dismantling a Borussia Mönchengladbach team that sits bottom of the table. The model was right to project a home win and the hosts to score first, though it missed by expecting both teams to score.
FC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen FC Augsburg maintained their prolific attacking form in a hard-fought draw. The model had firmly backed the match to produce more than 2.5 goals, but its call for a Bayer Leverkusen victory fell short.
FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt secured their first victory of the campaign after shipping seven goals in their opening two games. Our model incorrectly favoured a FSV Mainz 05 side that had started the season with back-to-back clean sheets.
1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder Bremen
- FC Köln's run of matches featuring goals at both ends continued in a tight draw. The model called for both teams to score, but missed on the cautious projection of a home win and a firm call for more than 2.5 goals.
Sunday, September 13
RB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SV RB Leipzig dominated a Hamburger SV side yet to score this season, brushing aside concerns over the absence of top scorer R. Reitz. The firm forecast for a home win landed smoothly, along with the call for the hosts to score the opening goal.
SV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern München SV Elversberg’s fearless start to life in the top flight met the harsh reality of facing the champions. Our model read the gulf in quality accurately, securing every call including a firm match result forecast and the exact 2-1 scoreline.
What we got wrong
The model’s biggest blind spot this weekend came in reading early-season form against underlying metrics. For the FSV Mainz 05 fixture, the forecast leaned on the home side's two clean sheets and Eintracht Frankfurt's dreadful defensive start. However, the visitors overturned those expectations with a 3-1 win, leaving our match result and first team to score projections incorrect.
A similar mismatch occurred for FC Augsburg. The model favoured Bayer Leverkusen based on their impressive underlying numbers—having generated more expected goals and conceded fewer high-quality chances than the rest of the division over their opening fixtures. However, having already scored seven goals in their opening two games, FC Augsburg proved too resilient, holding the visitors to a 2-2 draw and undoing our match result and half-time and full-time calls. Against FC Schalke 04, the model acknowledged Union Berlin's defensive fragility but still made a cautious projection for a home win, only for the visitors to capitalise on those weaknesses.
Matchweek 3 reinforced the attacking intent running through the division, with heavy defeats piling pressure on the likes of Borussia Mönchengladbach and Hamburger SV. As the campaign develops, the model will gain a clearer picture of which teams possess genuine defensive solidity and which are merely riding early momentum.
