Bundesliga Matchweek 4 Results: Bayern Put Seven Past Union

Bundesliga Matchweek 4 delivered an emphatic statement at the summit as Bayern München dismantled Union Berlin 7-0 to open the weekend. Across the nine fixtures, our forecasting model enjoyed solid returns on goal lines and win-or-draw projections, but suffered several notable misreads where underdogs disrupted the script.

How our forecasts did

Exact scorelines proved completely unreachable this round, with zero of the nine calls landing. Half-time and full-time projections also struggled badly, producing just two correct calls from nine graded. Projections on the opening goalscorer were split, with four of the nine calls coming through.

On broader outcomes, the model found firmer ground. Six of the nine win or draw calls landed, while both total goals and both teams to score each returned six correct calls from nine. In the match result category, five of the nine calls proved accurate.

Results

Bayern München 7-0 Union Berlin: Bayern München tore through Union Berlin in an overwhelming display. Our model was on the right side of the result, landing calls for a Bayern win, more than 2.5 goals, Bayern scoring first, and at least one side being kept off the scoresheet.

Eintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC Freiburg: SC Freiburg dropped their flawless record in an open four-goal draw. The model missed on a Freiburg victory, but high-confidence calls for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals landed comfortably.

Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC Köln: Hamburger SV broke out of their early-season slump to secure their first points of the campaign. The call for a Köln away win fell short, but our expectation of a decisive outcome landed alongside forecasts for over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.

Werder Bremen 3-2 FC Augsburg: Werder Bremen edged a five-goal battle against an in-form visiting attack. Our low-confidence call for a Werder Bremen win proved correct, as did projections for over 2.5 goals, both teams scoring, and FC Augsburg netting the opener.

Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05: FSV Mainz 05 came away with three points in a wild encounter that left the hosts winless. The model correctly anticipated an away win for Mainz, more than 2.5 goals, both sides finding the net, and Mainz leading at both the break and full-time.

VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund: A single goal settled a tightly contested match in Borussia Dortmund's favour. The model hit on a Dortmund victory and the visitors opening the scoring, though the low scoreline tripped up forecasts for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB Leipzig: Bayer Leverkusen produced a controlled display to take all three points. The model correctly projected a home win and Leverkusen scoring first, but Leipzig's failure to reply ruined the call for both teams to score.

FC Schalke 04 0-0 SV Elversberg: SV Elversberg held firm to earn a point in a goalless meeting. This was our worst performance of the weekend, failing across the board on a projected home win and an expected multi-goal contest.

SC Paderborn 07 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim: SC Paderborn 07 collected their first victory of the season by punishing the visitors on the break. The model backed 1899 Hoffenheim to win, missing the outcome, though calls for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score were safely delivered.

What we got wrong

The most glaring analytical miss came at the expense of FC Schalke 04. The model put weight on Schalke's solid defensive record at home, expecting them to control the game and find a way past SV Elversberg. Instead, the match dissolved into a defensive stalemate with neither side showing the creativity required to break the deadlock, leaving every single call on that fixture off target.

The model was also caught out by SC Paderborn 07. Paderborn had arrived without a league goal in three matches and faced an 1899 Hoffenheim side fielding Adam Hložek in attack. While Hoffenheim's defensive instability was factored into the goal calls, our projection did not anticipate Paderborn suddenly finding the net three times to overturn the form book.

Matchweek 4 provided a sharp reminder that early-season numbers can deceive when sides at the foot of the table begin to adapt. With several struggling teams recording their first points, the table has tightened up quickly heading into the next round.

Bundesliga Matchweek 4 Predictions: Bayern München Host

The 2026 Bundesliga campaign advances to Matchweek 4, with nine fixtures scheduled across a three-day stretch from Friday, September 18 to Sunday, September 20. The early dynamics of the season are beginning to settle, and this weekend offers further clarity at both ends of the table. The round opens with a stark contrast in form, pitting the division's most prolific attack against a visiting defence that has already shown serious vulnerabilities.

Friday's Focus: Bayern München vs Union Berlin

The weekend begins in Munich as Bayern München host Union Berlin. Our forecasting model has processed this opening fixture, and its projections heavily favour the home side. The historical context and recent form point firmly in one direction; Bayern München swept Union Berlin aside 4-0 in this exact fixture last March. The hosts enter Matchweek 4 on a long unbeaten run on home soil, consistently creating well over two expected goals per game while conceding almost nothing in return.

Union Berlin arrive in contrasting shape. The visitors have shipped ten goals across their opening three fixtures, a record that exposes deep defensive flaws. Their task is compounded by the absence of regular full-back Josip Juranović, a missing piece that leaves an already porous backline even more exposed against Bayern München's attack.

Given these factors, our model issues a firm call for a Bayern München win, as well as a high-confidence projection that Bayern München will win or draw. It expects the hosts to dominate early, showing high confidence in Bayern München to score the opening goal. The forecast for total goals also carries high confidence, with the model calling for more than 2.5 goals in the match. On the defensive side, there is a medium-confidence call that at least one side will be kept off the scoresheet, aligning with the hosts' recent defensive solidity. The model does offer a pair of speculative, low-confidence projections: a narrow 1-0 exact scoreline, and a half-time and full-time call of Bayern München leading at the break and winning the match. While these specific outcomes are treated with caution, the broader expectation of a comfortable home victory is resolute.

Saturday's Schedule

Five fixtures make up the Saturday slate, beginning with a block of four afternoon kickoffs. face SC Freiburg in a traditional mid-table contest. At the same time, Hamburger SV continue their top-flight campaign by hosting 1. FC Köln, while take on FC Augsburg. Rounding out the early window, welcome FSV Mainz 05.