Primeira Liga Matchweek 9 runs from 23 to 26 October 2026, featuring nine fixtures across four days of action. At the summit, FC Porto, Benfica, and Sporting CP remain locked in a tight race at the top of the standings, while several clubs in the lower half search for relief from poor runs of form. Detailed projections are published for the opening three encounters, while model calls for the remaining fixtures appear on each match page the day before kickoff.
The match of the round: Alverca vs Arouca
Alverca host Arouca on Saturday afternoon in a contest between two teams with contrasting recent trajectories. The home side enter the weekend on a three-match winning streak, most recently recording a 4-1 victory away at Famalicao. Despite sitting ninth in the standings with 11 points, Alverca have found regular goals, aided by forward D. Camara. Defensive absences continue to test their squad, with Bastien Meupiyou, Julián Martínez, and Noah Raveyre all ruled out through injury.
Arouca travel in fifth position with 14 points following a 1-0 win against Estrela, though they are currently adapting to a new manager. Our model highlights that Arouca's defensive record has been flattered by overperformance against expected goals, while their attack has found goals difficult to come by on the road. Leading scorer Ivan Barbero represents their primary finishing threat, but attacker Miguel Puche remains absent with an injury.
Our forecasting model leans towards an Alverca win, offering that call with low confidence given the narrow margins between the two teams. Both teams to score carries medium confidence, pointing towards chances at either end. On a more speculative note, the model offers a low-confidence call on a 1-0 scoreline in favour of Alverca.
Friday
Vitória SC meet Maritimo in Friday's lone fixture, with both teams eager to stop alarming slides. Vitória have lost five of their last seven matches overall and have failed to score in six of their last ten, entering in 15th place with five points. Suspended forward Alioune Ndoye joins Francisco Dias and Gui on the absentee list. Maritimo sit 12th with eight points but are winless in six matches and have conceded over 1.8 goals per away match without keeping a single clean sheet on the road. Without injured midfielder Yellu Santiago, their defensive vulnerabilities remain apparent. Our model projects a Vitória SC win with medium confidence, alongside a high-confidence call that Vitória SC will score the opening goal.
Saturday
Estrela host Casa Pia on Saturday afternoon in an encounter between two leaky defences. Casa Pia occupy 17th place with four points and have scored just three goals all season—the lowest tally in the division—without keeping a clean sheet since the opening weekend. Estrela sit 10th with 10 points and have conceded 15 goals without registering a shutout this campaign, though four-goal forward Ianis Stoica provides attacking threat despite Jeremy Arévalo missing through injury. With André Gomes out injured for the visitors, the model projects an Estrela win with medium confidence.
Saturday concludes as league leaders FC Porto visit sixth-placed Gil Vicente. FC Porto have won all eight league fixtures to amass 24 points and 20 goals, led in scoring by Gabriel Veiga, though they must manage absences to Vasco Sousa and William Gomes following consecutive European losses. Gil Vicente are unbeaten in three matches after wins over SC Braga and Moreirense, but must negotiate this contest without injured duo Arthur Tchaptchet and Mohamed Bamba.
Sunday
Estoril sit bottom of the division in 18th place with two points, entering Sunday on a three-match losing streak against SC Braga, Casa Pia, and Academico Viseu. With Fabrício Garcia out injured, they host 11th-placed Moreirense, who enter with eight points and no confirmed injury absences following a narrow 1-0 defeat to Gil Vicente.
Nacional sit 16th with four points after suffering three straight defeats, conceding 10 goals in matches against Alverca, Famalicao, and Rio Ave. Defenders Léo Santos and Ulisses remain sidelined through injury. Eighth-placed SC Braga hold 11 points and defeated Gent 2-0 in European competition on Thursday, though defender Sikou Niakaté remains out injured while Pau Víctor leads their scoring line.
Rio Ave and Famalicao meet level on seven points in 14th and 13th positions respectively. Rio Ave defeated Nacional 3-2 in their last outing but will be without injured pair Brandon Aguilera and Cezary Miszta. Famalicao suffered a 4-1 home defeat to Alverca last time out and have attacker Roméo Beney absent through suspension, though Georgios Koutsias is available to lead their front line.
Sporting CP host Academico Viseu in Sunday's late fixture. Third-placed Sporting have scored 20 league goals, with Luis Suárez tallying 11 in all competitions, but injuries rule out Nuno Santos, Rodrigo Zalazar, and Zeno Debast. Seventh-placed Academico Viseu hold 14 points on the back of three consecutive league wins over Vitória SC, Estrela, and Estoril, with leading scorer André Clóvis fully available.
Monday
Matchweek 9 concludes as fourth-placed Santa Clara host second-placed Benfica. Santa Clara hold 18 points and have conceded just four league goals, with Gonçalo Paciência leading their scoring, though MT misses out through injury. Benfica travel with 19 points and 24 league goals scored, led by Vangelis Pavlidis, while Daniel Banjaqui, Enzo Barrenechea, and Jakub Kamiński remain sidelined.
With only six points separating third place from seventh, the results across Matchweek 9 could shift the European qualification positions substantially. FC Porto will aim to protect their flawless domestic record at the summit, while the scrap near the bottom offers Estoril and Casa Pia an opportunity to climb out of the automatic relegation places.
