Matchweek 18 of the 2026 Allsvenskan delivered a series of surprising results, headlined by Djurgardens IF's emphatic 3-0 victory on the road against Malmo FF. For our forecasting model, it was a punishing round, as a string of unexpected away performances and draws left the majority of our calls missing the mark.
How our forecasts did
The model struggled to anticipate the weekend's outcomes, with exact scoreline proving the most difficult topic as only one of the eight calls landed. The total goals category fared little better, with just two of the eight projections proving correct, while the half-time and full-time forecasts also returned two successes from eight. The core match result predictions yielded only three correct calls out of eight. Both teams to score and first team to score each saw four of the eight forecasts hit the mark. The most resilient category was the cautious win or draw topic, which successfully navigated six of the eight fixtures.
Results
Sirius 0-3 BK Hacken Our model made a firm call for a Sirius victory based on their unbeaten home record, but Hacken defied their absentee list to secure a commanding away win.
Orgryte IS 1-1 Halmstad A relegation clash that saw the spoils shared. The model cautiously projected an Orgryte victory, but the home side continued their trend of stubborn draws, though the forecast for both teams to find the net did land.
IFK Goteborg 1-1 IF Elfsborg Elfsborg could not capitalise on their recent dominance in this fixture, settling for a point in a mid-table encounter. The model leaned tentatively toward an away win but successfully forecast that both teams would score.
Vasteras SK FK 0-0 Kalmar FF Kalmar arrived with the division's worst away record and managed to secure a goalless draw. The model expected a Vasteras victory but correctly projected that at least one side would be kept off the scoresheet.
IF Brommapojkarna 2-0 Degerfors IF Brommapojkarna took advantage of a depleted Degerfors backline to secure a comfortable victory. The model correctly called the home win and forecast Brommapojkarna to strike first.
Hammarby FF 2-0 Gais Hammarby leveraged the league's best home attack to overcome a poor recent head-to-head record against Gais. This was a flawless fixture for the model, which landed its firm match result call, correctly projected the exact 2-0 scoreline, and accurately forecast Hammarby to lead at the break and win.
Malmo FF 0-3 Djurgardens IF Malmo's defensive crisis was brutally exposed as Djurgardens continued their habit of fast starts. The model correctly anticipated the away win, factoring in Malmo's four missing starters and the visitors' formidable away defensive record.
AIK Stockholm 1-1 Mjallby AIF Despite Mjallby's freefall in form and struggles on the road, they salvaged a draw against an AIK side missing key defenders. The model had projected a narrow home victory.
What we got wrong
The most glaring misstep of the round was the firm backing of Sirius to defeat BK Hacken. The model placed heavy emphasis on Sirius's prolific home form, where they had been averaging nearly three goals a game and remained unbeaten. It also factored in Hacken's inconsistent away record and the absence of two key starters, failing to account for the visitors' counter-attacking threat that ultimately produced a 3-0 rout.
Similarly, the model consistently overvalued home advantage against struggling visitors, leading to incorrect calls for Vasteras and AIK Stockholm. Vasteras were backed to beat a Kalmar side that had conceded seventeen goals in eight winless away trips, but three confirmed defensive absences for the hosts neutered their ability to control the match, resulting in a scoreless stalemate. AIK were also expected to overcome Mjallby, but the loss of four regular starters—including core central defenders—left them unable to secure the projected victory.
This round served as a stark reminder of how defensive frailties and key absences can destabilise even the most reliable home form, reshaping the dynamic of the Allsvenskan table as the campaign progresses.
