La Liga Matchweek 4 Results: Betis Stun Real Madrid

La Liga Matchweek 4 saw the division's heavyweights falter as Real Betis handed Real Madrid their first defeat and Athletic Club dismantled Atletico Madrid, though our forecasting model struggled to anticipate the weekend's upsets.

How our forecasts did

The model had a difficult round, particularly when trying to pinpoint the exact scoreline, where none of the ten calls landed. The match result forecasts also fell flat, with just four of the ten graded predictions proving correct. We found slightly more success in the total goals and first team to score categories, with six of the ten calls landing in each, making them our best-performing areas. Five of the ten win or draw calls were correct, as were five of the ten both teams to score projections, while only two of the ten half-time and full-time forecasts were accurate.

Friday

Real Betis 1-0 Real Madrid Betis relied on their resilience at the Benito Villamarín to secure a narrow victory over a previously perfect Real Madrid. Our model cautiously projected the visitors to win or draw, but the hosts' defensive solidity proved too much.

Saturday

Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid Returning to San Mamés after a two-game losing streak, Athletic Club comfortably swept aside Diego Simeone's unbeaten side. We had tentatively projected an Atletico Madrid win, but the visitors were heavily beaten.

Rayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing Santander Rayo Vallecano extended their unbeaten home run to three matches with a narrow victory over Racing Santander. Our cautious forecast of a home win landed correctly, alongside a successful call for both teams to score.

Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La Coruna Villarreal's first home game at the Ceramica ended in defeat against an unbeaten Deportivo La Coruna side. The model firmly expected a Villarreal win based on their high-scoring form, but successfully called for more than 2.5 goals in the match.

Sunday

Valencia 0-5 Barcelona Barcelona maintained their blistering start to the season with a commanding victory over a Valencia side yet to find the net. Our model's firm call for a Barcelona win, more than 2.5 goals in the match, and at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet all landed comfortably.

Alaves 5-2 Osasuna Alaves maintained their unblemished home record at Mendizorroza in a high-scoring encounter that dismantled Osasuna's previously stingy defence. Our projection for an Alaves win proved accurate, though we firmly anticipated a low-scoring affair, which was heavily wide of the mark.

Malaga 0-0 Levante Malaga remain winless after playing out a goalless draw against a Levante side that has yet to score on the road this season. Our model missed its call for a Levante victory, though it successfully anticipated fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.

Espanyol 1-1 Sevilla Espanyol were unable to build on their previous home triumph, sharing the points with Sevilla. Our forecast of an Espanyol win fell short, but the calls for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match and both teams to score were correct.

Monday

Getafe 1-1 Celta Vigo Getafe and winless Celta Vigo played out a tight draw at the Coliseum, echoing their previous goalless meeting. We had forecast a Getafe win, but the model successfully called for Getafe to score the opening goal and fewer than 2.5 goals in the match.

Elche 2-3 Real Sociedad Bottom-of-the-table Elche remained on a single point as Real Sociedad leveraged their midfield quality to secure a narrow away victory. The model's cautious call for a Real Sociedad win was spot on, alongside accurate projections for more than 2.5 goals in the match and the visitors to score first.

What we got wrong

Our most glaring miscalculations this weekend came at the top of the table, as both Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid fell to comprehensive defeats. At the Benito Villamarín, the model recognised Betis's resilient home form and their tendency to find the net, but heavily weighed Real Madrid's perfect record and free-scoring attack. That resulted in a firm call for the visitors to score first and a medium-confidence projection for an away win, neither of which materialised as Betis kept a clean sheet.

Similarly, our model overlooked Athletic Club's ability to bounce back at San Mamés. Despite noting Athletic's 1-0 victory over Atlético last season, the forecast leaned into Diego Simeone's unbeaten start and clinical edge. Instead of a narrow away win, Athletic dominated the fixture. The model also misread Villarreal's home opener at the Ceramica; relying on their high average of 3.5 goals per match and Deportivo's underlying numbers suggesting they concede chances, a firm call was made for a home win that ended in a 3-2 defeat.

The weekend's results leave both Madrid clubs licking their wounds while Barcelona pull away at the top with a flawless goalscoring record, and early strugglers like Valencia and Elche remain desperate for a change in fortune.

La Liga Matchweek 4 Predictions: Real Madrid face Betis test

La Liga Matchweek 4 kicks off on Friday evening with a heavyweight clash between Real Betis and Real Madrid, and runs through to Monday night, with 10 fixtures that could reshape the early table. The standout narrative is the meeting of two perfect-starting sides in Seville, but across the weekend there are Basque derbies, promoted sides looking to make their mark, and a Mestalla appointment between Valencia and Barcelona.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid – the match of the round

The round’s opening act is also its headline act. Real Madrid arrive at the Benito Villamarín with a 100 per cent record and an attack that has already rattled in goals at will, while Betis have been quietly resilient, winning their only home game to nil and carrying a run of form across all competitions that suggests they rarely fail to trouble the scoreboard.

Our forecasting model expects that pattern to hold, and leans towards a Real Madrid win, albeit with a medium level of conviction. The call is that the visitors will have too much firepower, but the model is also firm on Madrid striking first – a high-confidence take that underlines the belief in their fast starts. The additional medium-confidence read is that both teams will score, a nod to Betis’s knack of getting on the sheet even when second best. The combined picture is of an entertaining contest where the champions’ quality tells, but not without a response from the hosts.

Match-by-match

Saturday

Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid – A Saturday lunchtime Basque capital collision. The forecast for this one is still to come, but the meeting of two sides built on defensive organisation and intensity rarely disappoints. Athletic’s San Mamés fortress will be tested by an Atletico side that has made a habit of grinding out results on the road.

Rayo Vallecano vs – The model’s view is pending on this clash between a Rayo side that always brings energy at Vallecas and a Racing team still adjusting to the top flight. The fixture has the feel of a classic early-season test for the promoted visitors.