Matchweek 4 of the Segunda División produced a weekend of tight margins, goalless draws, and high-scoring home victories, testing our forecasting model's reading of early-season form. While five of the ten match result calls landed successfully, a cluster of stalemates meant several firm projections missed the mark.
How our forecasts did
The win or draw and total goals categories proved to be the most reliable, each returning eight correct projections from ten graded. First team to score saw six of the ten calls land, followed by match result and both teams to score, which both returned five correct calls from ten. It was a challenging round for the more specific categories, with four of the ten half-time and full-time projections landing, while exact scoreline fared worst, managing just one correct call from ten.
Results
Las Palmas 0-0 Leganes Our model expected Las Palmas to continue their strong start with a medium-confidence call for a home win, but Leganes extended their impressive defensive record to hold on for a goalless draw. The call for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match proved correct.
Real Sociedad II 1-1 Tenerife Tenerife struck first as projected, but they could not secure the away victory the model cautiously anticipated, with Real Sociedad II taking their first home point of the campaign.
Sporting Gijon 0-2 Girona A cautious projection for a Sporting Gijon win was undone by a prolific Girona attack, who scored twice to end the home side's run of consecutive clean sheets.
AD Ceuta FC 0-2 Celta de Vigo II Ceuta's defensive woes continued as they conceded another two goals. Our model issued a low-confidence call for a home win, but correctly identified Celta de Vigo II to score the opening goal.
Valladolid 1-0 FC Andorra A tight affair resulted in a narrow home victory for Valladolid. This fixture did not carry any forecasts.
Eldense 0-0 Mallorca The model issued a firm call for a Mallorca win, expecting their attack to capitalise on Eldense's leaky defence, but the home side secured an unexpected goalless draw.
Eibar 3-0 Granada CF A medium-confidence projection for an Eibar win was comfortably validated, with the model also correctly calling Eibar to score first and lead at the break, reflecting their strong head-to-head home record against Granada.
Oviedo 0-0 Burgos Our model successfully navigated this stalemate, correctly projecting a draw, fewer than 2.5 goals, and the exact 0-0 scoreline, as Oviedo's struggles in front of goal in front of their own fans continued.
Castellón 2-0 Albacete Top-of-the-table Castellón secured a home win as expected by a medium-confidence forecast, with the model also correctly calling them to open the scoring.
Almeria 3-2 Cadiz An open encounter unfolded exactly as our model anticipated. Medium-confidence calls for an Almeria win, more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and Almeria to strike first all landed in a high-scoring home victory.
Sabadell 3-2 Cordoba A cautious call for a Sabadell win proved correct, as did the projection for them to score first. However, Cordoba's open style turned a usually watertight Sabadell defence into a high-scoring affair that foiled the expectation of fewer than 2.5 goals.
What we got wrong
The model's most notable misses stemmed from a sequence of unexpected away performances and stubborn home resistance. At Sporting Gijon, our projections leaned heavily on the hosts' streak of three consecutive clean sheets, anticipating they would stifle Girona. Instead, the visitors scored twice, invalidating the cautious home win forecast.
Similarly, AD Ceuta FC were backed to secure a win despite shipping ten goals in their opening three matches, but Celta de Vigo II comfortably took the points. The model was also caught out by Eldense's resilience; having conceded heavily in previous outings, they were projected to fall to a Mallorca side adept at finding the net late in matches. Yet they held firm for a goalless draw that disrupted a medium-confidence match result call, just as Las Palmas' failure to break down Leganes thwarted another firm projection.
As Matchweek 4 of the Segunda División concludes, the division shows a distinct divide between defensively resolute sides capable of grinding out draws and those engaging in high-scoring shootouts. Our model adjusted well to the established home dominance of teams like Eibar and Almeria, but the unexpected resilience of struggling sides will give it fresh data to process heading into the next round of fixtures.
