Segunda División Matchweek 5 brought a flurry of away victories, headlined by Oviedo's stunning 3-0 win at Valladolid and Eibar's four-goal demolition of Celta de Vigo II. It was a punishing weekend for home advantage and a difficult round for our forecasting model, which found itself on the wrong end of several unexpected results and correctly called the match winner in fewer than half of the games.
How our forecasts did
Our model struggled with the weekend's unpredictability, particularly at the margins. The exact scoreline and half-time and full-time topics fared worst, with just one of the ten graded calls landing in each of those categories.
The match result topic also took a hit, with four of the ten graded calls proving correct. The model found its best returns in the first team to score and win or draw topics, with six of the ten calls landing in both.
Results
Friday, September 11
Burgos 3-1 AD Ceuta FC Burgos maintained their solid start to the campaign by seeing off a struggling AD Ceuta side who arrived bottom of the table. Our firm call for a Burgos win landed comfortably, though the visitors finding the net meant our medium-confidence call for at least one side to be kept off the scoresheet missed.
Saturday, September 12
FC Andorra 1-3 Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II secured an impressive victory on the road to take all three points. This fixture did not carry any published forecasts.
Cadiz 0-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas arrived with a strong head-to-head record at this ground and left with another victory, compounding Cadiz's search for their first win of the season. The model accurately projected a cautious Las Palmas win, and impressively landed a low-confidence call on the exact 1-0 scoreline for the visitors.
Girona 1-2 Castellón Castellón arrived as league leaders with the stingiest defence in the division, and they reinforced that status by taking all three points. Our model cautiously backed a Girona win, expecting their potent home attack to make the difference, but that call was incorrect.
Granada CF 1-1 Albacete Granada extended their unbeaten run to four matches but could not find a way past an Albacete side that had previously suffered four straight defeats. We projected a Granada win, which missed, but our medium-confidence call for Granada to win or draw landed successfully, as did the call for fewer than 2.5 goals.
Cordoba 0-2 Almeria Almeria brushed aside their blunt away form to secure a two-goal victory. The model anticipated Cordoba's home scoring streak to continue and cautiously backed a home win, which was incorrect, though our medium-confidence call for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match proved correct.
Sunday, September 13
Sporting Gijon 0-1 Eldense Eldense arrived without a win or an away goal to their name this season, but broke both ducks at El Molinón. The model's medium-confidence call for a Sporting Gijon win missed completely, though it did correctly project fewer than 2.5 goals and that at least one side would be kept off the scoresheet.
Valladolid 0-3 Oviedo The shock of the round saw Oviedo, who arrived with the worst scoring record in the division, score three times against an unbeaten Valladolid side. The model's call for a Valladolid win was well wide of the mark, and a firm projection for fewer than 2.5 goals in the match was also undone by the visitors' sudden ruthlessness in front of goal.
Mallorca 2-0 Sabadell Mallorca continued to make Son Moix a fortress, winning again without conceding. Our medium-confidence call for a Mallorca win landed safely. The model also correctly projected fewer than 2.5 goals, that Mallorca would score first, and made a firm call that at least one side would fail to score.
Tenerife 2-0 Leganes Tenerife had previously struggled for goals at home but found two to defeat a Leganes side that had kept three clean sheets from four matches. Expecting a tight game, the model cautiously backed a draw, which was incorrect. However, calls for Tenerife to win or draw and fewer than 2.5 goals both landed.
Monday, September 14
Celta de Vigo II 0-4 Eibar Eibar wrapped up the matchweek with a commanding away victory. The model successfully projected an Eibar win, Eibar to score first, and a low-confidence call that the visitors would be ahead at the break and go on to win the match.
What we got wrong
The biggest misread of the weekend was undoubtedly at the Zorrilla. Valladolid entered the match unbeaten at home, boasting three wins from four on their own turf. They were facing an Oviedo side that, despite keeping three clean sheets in four league games, possessed the worst scoring record in the Segunda División. The model leaned heavily into those numbers, firmly projecting fewer than 2.5 goals and cautiously backing a home win. Instead, Oviedo found their attacking edge to record a 3-0 victory, tearing up all expectations for a low-scoring affair.
A similar story played out in Asturias, where Sporting Gijon hosted Eldense. The visitors arrived having failed to score a single away goal all season and sitting winless. Sporting Gijon had kept two clean sheets from three home matches. Based on that defensive record, the model projected a home victory. Eldense's 1-0 win was a sharp reminder that early-season form can turn quickly.
Matchweek 5 served as a stark demonstration that previous attacking or defensive woes are not permanent. With away teams finding their rhythm and several early defensive records shattered, the upcoming fixtures will test whether these shock results were anomalies or the start of a broader shift in the division.
