The Scottish Premiership returns for Matchweek 11 on 28 October 2026, delivering six midweek fixtures headlined by a top-three meeting between Heart of Midlothian and Rangers. Celtic currently hold a four-point advantage at the top of the standings, but the battle immediately behind them remains tight, while several sides lower down the table attempt to halt losing sequences. The model has generated projections for every game in this round, and the remaining calls appear on each match page the day before kickoff.
The match of the round: Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers
Third-placed Hearts host second-placed Rangers in the late kickoff, with only four points separating the two sides. Wouter Vrancken's Hearts team have won all four of their home league matches this season, scoring thirteen times and conceding only two. They returned to winning ways on the domestic front with a 2-0 victory at Motherwell, led in attack by Calvin Miller, who has five goals across all competitions. However, the home side must contend without Ageu, Blair Spittal, and Christian Dahle Borchgrevink through injury.
Rangers make the trip on the back of an emphatic 4-0 victory over St Johnstone, extending their unbeaten run to seven matches. Derek McInnes's side possess the division's second-best record, though they travel without injured forward Lawrence Shankland, as well as Cameron Devlin, Daisuke Yokota, and José Cifuentes. Top scorer Ryan Don Naderi, who has found the net six times this season, shoulders much of the finishing responsibility.
Our model leans cautiously towards a Rangers win in what projects to be an evenly balanced meeting, assigning low confidence to an away victory. With both sides demonstrating consistent firepower in front of goal, the model also projects more than 2.5 goals and both teams to score, anticipating an open contest.
Match-by-match
Aberdeen vs Falkirk
Aberdeen return home following a 3-2 defeat away to Dundee United, with four-goal striker Kevin Nisbet continuing to lead their line. Falkirk arrive in good form after back-to-back victories over Kilmarnock and Hibernian, and they have won on two of their previous three league visits to this venue. Even with Kristers Tobers sidelined for the hosts and Falkirk missing Aidan Nesbitt, Aodhan Doherty, and Ethan Laidlaw, our model favours an Aberdeen win with medium confidence, expecting the hosts to score the opening goal.
Celtic vs Dundee Utd
League leaders Celtic have scored 25 goals across their opening ten league matches, supported by Camilo Durán's nine goals in all competitions and Benjamin Nygren's strong domestic scoring run. Dundee United travel on a five-match unbeaten streak following a 3-2 win against Aberdeen, but they face a stern test against an attack averaging 2.5 goals per match. With Alistair Johnston and Yang Hyun-Jun out for Celtic and United missing Emmanuel Agyei, Mehdi Merghem, and Will Ferry, the model offers a firm projection for a Celtic win and anticipates more than 2.5 goals.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock
Dundee enter this fixture sitting fifth despite a seven-match run without a clean sheet, having fallen 2-1 at St Mirren over the weekend. Kilmarnock sit eleventh after conceding three goals at Falkirk, and their defensive difficulties are compounded by an injury to goalkeeper Maksymilian Stryjek. The model favours a Dundee win with medium confidence; as a cautious projection, our model also highlights Dundee 2-1 Kilmarnock as a speculative exact scoreline with low confidence.
St Johnstone vs Motherwell
St Johnstone have lost only once in five home fixtures this campaign, though they must manage the absence of suspended attacker Kai Fotheringham alongside injuries to Samuel Stanton and Zach Mitchell. Motherwell enter on a five-match league losing run following a 2-0 defeat to Hearts, yet their underlying numbers rank them sixth in expected points rather than tenth. The model cautiously favours a St Johnstone win, though the low confidence reflects Motherwell's potential to turn underlying chances into points.
St Mirren vs Hibernian
St Mirren arrested a slide by beating Dundee 2-1 last weekend, yet they have still conceded an average of two goals per match over their recent fixtures and remain without Jonah Ayunga, Keanu Baccus, and Malik Dijksteel. Hibernian sit twelfth following three consecutive 2-1 defeats, but manager Marink Reedijk's side have won the last two meetings with St Mirren, including a three-goal away win last season. Our model leans towards an away victory for Hibernian with medium confidence, also anticipating both teams to score.
What Matchweek 11 could change
A Celtic victory combined with anything less than three points for Rangers would widen the gap at the Premiership summit. Conversely, a Rangers victory at Tynecastle would consolidate second place and put distance between themselves and Hearts. At the foot of the division, Hibernian could lift themselves off the bottom with an away win, while Kilmarnock and Motherwell seek the points required to pull away from the lower tier.
