Matchweek 13 of the Scottish Premiership brought dramatic scorelines across the card, none louder than Falkirk putting five past Heart of Midlothian in Edinburgh. The round produced heavy away wins, tight scraps, and mixed fortunes for our forecasting model, which managed a flat return across most categories after missing significant upsets at Tynecastle and Pittodrie.
How our forecasts did
Overall, the win or draw calls performed best this round, with four of the six calls landing. Match result projections struggled to separate the surprises, finishing with three of the six calls landing. Goals and team scoring calls followed the same pattern: three of the six total goals calls landed, three of the six both teams to score calls landed, and three of the six first team to score projections were accurate. The half-time and full-time calls also saw three of the six land. Exact scorelines are notoriously difficult, yet two of the six calls landed cleanly, correctly projecting St Johnstone to win 2-1 and Rangers to take a 2-0 victory.
Results
Saturday 7 November
Dundee Utd 1-1 Motherwell
Dundee United entered the weekend on a six-match unbeaten run under Jim Goodwin, but Motherwell halted their winning push in a tight 1-1 draw. The model projected a home win and more than 2.5 goals, missing both, but did correctly call both teams to score.
St Johnstone 2-1 Dundee
Simo Valakari's side ended a four-match winless run by edging their local rivals. Our model anticipated this turnaround cleanly, hitting on a St Johnstone win, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, and the exact 2-1 final scoreline.
Aberdeen 0-4 Hibernian
Hibernian ran riot in the evening fixture, delivering a comprehensive away performance. Stephen Robinson's Aberdeen side could not convert their possession into goals, meaning our call for a home win missed, though the win or draw call for a winner either way and the over 2.5 goals call both landed.
St Mirren 0-2 Rangers
Derek McInnes's Rangers extended their unbeaten streak to ten matches with a controlled away display. Our model was on the mark here, correctly calling a Rangers win, the win or draw call, Rangers to score first, and the exact 2-0 scoreline.
Sunday 8 November
Heart Of Midlothian 2-5 Falkirk
In the most chaotic match of the weekend, Falkirk dismantled Hearts' strong home record with a five-goal blitz. The model looked for a home victory based on Hearts winning four of their prior five league home fixtures, missing the match outcome completely, though the call for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score landed comfortably.
Celtic 1-0 Kilmarnock
League leaders Celtic secured three points under Martin O'Neill through a solitary goal. The model firmly projected a home victory and Celtic scoring first, both of which landed, but the expectation of high goal volume missed against a resolute Kilmarnock defensive effort.
What we got wrong
The weekend's primary blind spot was Tynecastle. Hearts entered the clash having averaged three goals per match at home, while Falkirk were expected to provide tough opposition but not complete dominance. The model projected a Heart of Midlothian win or draw, leaning towards a 2-1 home victory. Instead, Falkirk ripped through the home backline to score five times, exposing defensive frailties our projection simply did not anticipate.
A similar misread unfolded at Pittodrie. While Aberdeen had struggled for recent goals under Stephen Robinson, their underlying chance creation led the model to favor them in a low-confidence call against Hibernian. Hibernian's four-goal away clinic completely shattered that projection, punishing Aberdeen's wastefulness and leaving our home win call well wide of the mark.
Matchweek 13 showed how quickly form lines can shatter in the Premiership. Celtic and Rangers took care of business to maintain their positions, but Falkirk's statement win at Hearts and Hibernian's rout at Aberdeen shook up the chasing pack.
