A wild Major League Soccer weekend delivered a seven-goal avalanche from Inter Miami, upsets in Portland and Houston, and a reality check for the exact-scoreline algorithm. Across the 15 fixtures of Matchweek 22, the model’s win-or-draw forecasts performed best, but it landed only a single correct scoreline — a reminder that pinning down the final digits remains the toughest test in football analytics.
How our forecasts did
Total goals was also reliable, with 11 correct outcomes. Both teams to score and first team to score each landed nine times, modest figures on a weekend when clean sheets were far from guaranteed. Half-time and full-time delivered six correct forecasts. The exact scoreline market, however, was a bruising affair — just one of 15 calls was correct, and that solitary success came in Colorado.
Saturday, August 29
Seattle Sounders 2-2 Chicago Fire
The model backed Chicago on the road and the Fire opened the scoring, but Seattle rallied with a depleted side to snatch a point. The forecast for more than 2.5 goals and both teams to score both landed, while the call for a Chicago win and an exact 2-1 away scoreline missed.
Inter Miami 7-1 CF Montreal
The headline act of the round. A firm home-win call was never in doubt as Miami ran riot. The total goals and both teams to score forecasts were correct long before the final whistle. The only blemish was the exact scoreline, which plumped for a polite 2-1 rather than a rout.
DC United 0-0 Los Angeles FC
A high-confidence both-teams-to-score call crashed into a goalless draw. The model had LAFC to win, and saw goals, but neither materialised at Audi Field. The win-or-draw forecast for the visitors did land, but little else went to plan.
New York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union
A clean sweep for the model’s medium-confidence calls. Philadelphia were tipped to win, both teams to score, over 2.5 goals, and the Union to score first — all correct. The exact 2-1 away scoreline fell one goal short.
Toronto FC 1-1 New York City FC
The low-confidence home-win call missed, and the belief that a draw was the least likely outcome proved wrong. Both teams to score landed, and NYCFC did open the scoring, but the contest ended level.
Atlanta United FC 0-2 Charlotte
The model gave Atlanta a cautious edge at home, but Charlotte blanked them. No goals for the hosts meant the both-teams-to-score and total-goals forecasts went down. The only consolation: the call for a winner either way was correct.
Later Saturday and Sunday
Nashville SC 4-0 FC Cincinnati
Nashville’s perfect home record stayed intact with an emphatic win. The firm match-result and medium over 2.5 goals calls were correct. The model expected both teams to score, but Cincinnati failed to find a reply.
Sporting Kansas City 0-3 Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver justified high confidence with a comfortable win. The total goals tipped over, though the low-confidence both-teams-to-score call missed because Sporting KC were blanked yet again.
Minnesota United FC 3-3 Orlando City SC
A low-confidence home win was undone by a six-goal thriller. The total goals call — fewer than 2.5 — was the round’s most notable miss on that market. Both teams to score and first team to score (Orlando) were correct.
Houston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes
The model’s biggest stumble. A high-confidence Houston win and a medium-confidence opener for the home side both failed in a stalemate. The low-confidence under 2.5 goals landed, but the win-or-draw call merely salvaged a point for the forecast.
Colorado Rapids 1-0 Real Salt Lake
The exact scoreline landed — 1-0 to Colorado, the only one of the round. The Rapids were tipped to win, to open the scoring, and for under 2.5 goals, all correct. Both teams to score missed, and the half-time/full-time call was too early; the goal came after the break.
San Diego 3-1 Los Angeles Galaxy
A high-confidence San Diego win and both teams to score landed in a comfortable victory. The exact scoreline was a goal off, but the half-time/full-time combination of San Diego ahead at the break and winning came in.
Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin
The round’s most damaging upset. Portland were backed with high confidence to win, to score first, and to win or draw. None of those came off as Austin snatched victory. Total goals and both teams to score were correct, but the miss on the outright result stung.
Columbus Crew 1-3 New England Revolution
A low-confidence away win for New England proved well-judged. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score landed, and the half-time/full-time call of Revs ahead at the break and winning was correct. Only the first-scorer forecast missed.
St. Louis City 3-3 FC Dallas
The model backed a home win on a ten-match unbeaten run, but Dallas forced a draw. Total goals and both teams to score were correct, as was the call for St. Louis to open the scoring. The exact scoreline and half-time/full-time forecasts fell away.
What we got wrong
The Portland Timbers defeat was the standout miss. The algorithm leaned heavily on Portland’s fortress-like home form and Austin’s dreadful away defensive numbers — conceding 2.7 goals per game on the road, with 46% of those coming late — yet it was the visitors who struck at the death. That high-confidence call crumbling in a 2-1 away win exposes the model’s difficulty in weighing tactical weaknesses against the chaos of individual match-deciding moments.
The Houston Dynamo draw was another black eye. Four straight wins and a watertight home defence pointed firmly to a home victory against a San Jose side missing four regulars and in freefall. The 0-0 outcome suggests the model underestimated how much an opponent’s desperation and a packed defensive shape can neutralise superior form.
Elsewhere, the exact scoreline market recorded its worst round of the season. The model’s general play-calling — total goals, both teams to score — often held up, but the final digits rarely aligned. The solitary correct scoreline (Colorado 1-0 Real Salt Lake) was the exception that proved the rule.
What the round changed
Matchweek 22 reinforced the Western Conference hierarchy: Vancouver and Nashville tightened their grips at the top, while Sporting KC’s misery deepened. Atlanta’s home loss and Houston’s draw scrambled the middle of the West, and Portland’s stumble gave chasing sides hope. For the model, the round was a tale of two extremes: broadly reliable on directional calls, but humbling when asked to name the numbers.
