MLS Matchweek 24 Results: Philadelphia Crush Cincinnati 5-0

Major League Soccer delivered plenty of drama across Matchweek 24, highlighted by Philadelphia Union dismantling FC Cincinnati 5-0 and Toronto FC upsetting league leaders Nashville SC 2-1. Our forecasting model found mixed success across the fifteen fixtures, excelling on goal flow while struggling to predict outright winners in several competitive pairings.

How our forecasts did

The match result calls proved difficult, with only seven of the fifteen calls landing as home favourites stumbled in several fixtures. Exact scoreline projections and half-time and full-time calls also found hard going, with four of fifteen correct in each category. On the positive side, both teams to score calls did best of all, landing eleven of fifteen. Total goals forecasts also performed strongly, with ten of fifteen correct calls. Win or draw projections and first team to score calls each produced nine correct results from fifteen.

Results

Atlanta United FC 2-3 Orlando City SC
Orlando edged a five-goal battle on the road. The model missed on the home win, but high-confidence calls for more than 2.5 goals and both teams to score landed comfortably.

Toronto FC 2-1 Nashville SC
Toronto produced an upset against the league leaders. The model anticipated a low-scoring Nashville victory, getting the match result wrong while hitting on both teams to score and Nashville getting the opening goal.

DC United 2-1 Columbus Crew
DC United held off Columbus to sweep the board for our model, which correctly predicted a home victory, both teams to score, more than 2.5 goals, and the exact 2-1 scoreline.

CF Montreal 1-2 Charlotte
Charlotte secured an away win, rewarding our low-confidence call on an away victory and hitting the exact 1-2 scoreline alongside both teams to score.

Philadelphia Union 5-0 FC Cincinnati
Philadelphia ran riot with five unanswered goals. Our projection accurately called the home win and more than 2.5 goals, though Cincinnati failed to register to deny the both teams to score call.

New York City FC 1-2 New England Revolution
New England took the points away from home, frustrating our model's lean toward a home win while landing both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals.

Chicago Fire 1-1 Inter Miami
Chicago and Miami shared the points in a tight contest. The model missed on the home win and expected more than 2.5 goals, but correctly projected both teams to score and Chicago to strike first.

Minnesota United FC 1-2 FC Dallas
Dallas took the away victory after scoring the opener. The model missed the match result by leaning toward Minnesota, but accurately projected Dallas to score first, both teams to score, and more than 2.5 goals.

Austin 1-1 Colorado Rapids
Colorado earned a point on their travels in a low-scoring stalemate. The projection missed the match result and under 2.5 goals call, though both sides finding the net kept the both teams to score call intact.

Houston Dynamo 2-1 Real Salt Lake
Houston took all three points at home, validating our match result call and Houston opening the scoring, though late scoring pushed the game beyond the projected under 2.5 goal line.

Los Angeles FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls
LAFC controlled the contest from the front, delivering on a home win, the opening goal, and an exact 2-0 scoreline call, while keeping a clean sheet.

Vancouver Whitecaps 3-0 Los Angeles Galaxy
The Western Conference leaders dominated from the start, fulfilling firm calls on a home win, the opening goal, and more than 2.5 goals.

San Diego 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose pulled off an away win in a wild five-goal encounter. The model was wrong to back San Diego for the win, but calls for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals landed easily.

Portland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis City
A four-goal draw saw Portland drop points at home. Our lean toward a home victory fell short, but high-confidence calls on both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals landed.

Seattle Sounders 2-1 Sporting Kansas City
Seattle closed the round with a narrow home win, rewarding our firm call on a home victory and delivering an exact 2-1 scoreline call.

What we got wrong

The model's sharpest miscalculations came from overvaluing home form against resilient road underdogs. In Toronto, the projection leaned heavily on Nashville SC's stingy away record, having allowed just five goals on the road prior to kickoff, and Toronto's habit of drawing matches. Instead, Toronto broke down the league's top defense to take all three points.

San Diego was another costly misread. San Jose arrived on an extended winless slide with absentees in defence, prompting the model to favour the hosts despite San Diego missing Marcus Ingvartsen. San Jose took advantage of the open contest and put three past the home defense, completely defying the projected home victory.

Matchweek 24 showed that defensive records on the road remain volatile across the league. While high-scoring trends across North America proved predictable for goal totals, unexpected road performances from teams like San Jose and Charlotte shook up the conference standings.

Major League Soccer Matchweek 24 Preview: Toronto

Matchweek 24 of the Major League Soccer season brings a sprawling 15-match schedule spanning from September 9 through to a final fixture in early October. The defining storyline this round is Nashville SC's attempt to cement their status at the summit, putting their remarkable defensive record on the line in Canada. Our forecasting model has parsed the early data for the first six fixtures of the round, with the remaining calls to be generated closer to kickoff.

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC

Toronto FC have developed a habit of grinding out home draws, taking eight stalemates from thirteen outings at their own ground. However, their underlying defensive numbers remain a concern, as they continue to struggle to keep clean sheets. That vulnerability will be tested by a visiting Nashville SC side that arrives as the league leaders. Nashville boast the stingiest defensive record in the division, having conceded just five times on their travels all season. They have also claimed victory in their last two visits to Toronto.

Our model's evaluation leans towards the visitors. It makes a Nashville SC win a medium-confidence call, with a firm expectation that the away side will score the opening goal. While Toronto's penchant for draws is noted in the data, the model projects fewer than three goals overall, aligning with Nashville's typically disciplined away performances. A 1-0 away victory stands as the cautious specific scoreline projection.

Wednesday Evening Kickoffs

The round begins with a flurry of late Wednesday fixtures. Atlanta United FC host Orlando City SC on the back of three consecutive victories. They will look to exploit an Orlando side whose away matches have been inherently chaotic. The visitors have found the net in their last four on the road but have also shipped three goals per game in that span, a fragility that could be exacerbated by the absence of midfielder Braian Ojeda. The model firmly expects more than two goals here, though its call for an Atlanta United FC win is a cautious one.

At the same time, DC United welcome the Columbus Crew. DC have become the league's draw specialists recently, with six stalemates in their last ten, while managing just three home wins all season. They face a Columbus team in freefall, however, having lost four straight and missing three key starters for this trip. The model projects a cautious DC United win, backed by a firm expectation that both teams will score.