Major League Soccer Matchweek 25 delivered plenty of surprises on the road, headlined by Philadelphia Union's emphatic five-goal victory over San Diego and a shock home defeat for league leaders Vancouver Whitecaps against Austin. It was a challenging weekend for our forecasting model, which found the outright winners difficult to pin down but accurately anticipated the volume of goals across the division.
How our forecasts did
Our model struggled to call the outright outcomes, with only five of the 15 match result calls landing. The exact scoreline topic was the hardest hit, managing just one correct call from 15. Half-time and full-time forecasts returned five successful calls from 15, while first team to score finished with six correct out of 15. The brightest spot of the weekend came in the total goals topic, which was our most successful category, securing 11 correct forecasts from 15 matches.
Results
Inter Miami 2-2 Nashville SC The visitors' strong defence managed to restrict Miami, capitalising on the hosts missing three defensive starters. Our cautious call for a Miami win missed, though we accurately projected more than 2.5 goals and a level match at the break.
Columbus Crew 0-1 New York Red Bulls Columbus Crew's struggles continued as their previously reliable form at Lower.com Field failed to produce a goal. Our model's expectation of a home win and both teams scoring was upended by the narrow away victory.
FC Cincinnati 3-3 Charlotte A six-goal thriller played out in Ohio, perfectly matching our firm projection for both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals. The model missed the outright result but successfully called Cincinnati to open the scoring.
Orlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FC Orlando City maintained their strong record at Exploria Stadium with a comfortable victory over a poor travelling Toronto side. The model successfully forecasted the home win, Orlando to score first, and a home advantage at the break.
DC United 0-0 Atlanta United FC A stalemate in the capital meant our call for a DC United victory fell short. The model incorrectly anticipated goals, though it safely navigated a win or draw call for the hosts.
Sporting Kansas City 3-1 Los Angeles FC The bottom side in the Western Conference secured an unexpected win despite missing three defensive starters. Our cautious call for an LAFC result missed entirely, though our projection for more than 2.5 goals and both teams to score landed correctly.
FC Dallas 2-1 Portland Timbers Dallas overcame their tendency to draw at home, dispatching a Portland side carrying the division's worst away record. The model read this perfectly, hitting the match result, the exact scoreline, and Dallas to lead at the break and win.
St. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FC St. Louis extended their unbeaten run to 11 matches with a high-scoring victory. We correctly projected the home win, more than 2.5 goals, and both teams to score, though Minnesota struck first to spoil that specific forecast.
Real Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FC Injuries tested Real Salt Lake's depth, and they fell short at home. Our cautious call for a home win missed, as did our firm expectation for both teams to score.
Colorado Rapids 1-0 CF Montreal The Rapids continued their formidable defensive home form, shutting out a vulnerable Montreal side. Our firm call for a home victory proved correct, and we accurately forecasted Colorado to score first and at least one side to keep a clean sheet.
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-1 Seattle Sounders Two sides hampered by injuries ground out a draw. Our cautious call for a Galaxy win was incorrect, but we successfully projected fewer than 2.5 goals and the hosts to strike first.
San Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston Dynamo Despite failing to win their last four at PayPal Park, San Jose secured a narrow victory over Houston's stingy defence. Our expectation of an away win missed, but the low-scoring nature of the contest meant our call for fewer than 2.5 goals landed.
Chicago Fire 1-2 New England Revolution New England's thrilling away matches continued as they took all three points in Chicago. Our model incorrectly backed the home side, but firmly and accurately projected more than 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
Vancouver Whitecaps 1-2 Austin The league leaders suffered a shock home defeat to an Austin side that had struggled mightily on the road all season. We firmly expected a Vancouver win and the hosts to score first, though our firm call for more than 2.5 goals provided a slight silver lining.
San Diego 0-5 Philadelphia Union Missing three starters, including top scorer Marcus Ingvartsen, San Diego were dismantled by a rampant Philadelphia attack. We accurately projected the Union victory, the visitors to score first, and a high-scoring affair.
What we got wrong
The biggest miss of the weekend came in Canada, where our model placed high confidence in a Vancouver Whitecaps victory over Austin. The logic appeared sound: Vancouver were the league leaders with an excellent home record at BC Place, while Austin arrived with a dire away record, zero clean sheets on the road, and an average of over 2.5 goals conceded per away trip. The model heavily weighted this disparity, completely missing Austin's ability to upset the hosts.
Similarly, the model was caught out by Sporting Kansas City's 3-1 victory over Los Angeles FC. Sitting bottom of the Western Conference and missing three defensive starters, Sporting KC looked extremely vulnerable against an LAFC side that had dominated recent meetings. The model naturally expected the visitors to prevail, failing to account for the hosts securing an unexpected three points.
The weekend's results serve as a reminder of the volatility of away fixtures. With the league leaders stumbling at home and the bottom side producing a significant upset, the form book was frequently discarded in a round that severely punished confident home projections.
