Major League Soccer Matchweek 31 brings 15 fixtures across the weekend of 24 to 26 October 2026, as conference races reach a decisive phase. Nashville SC defend their position at the summit of the Eastern Conference while Vancouver Whitecaps protect their advantage at the top of the West. Fourteen matches have full projections published, while the remaining calls appear on each match page the day before kickoff.
The match of the round: Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union sit sixth in the Eastern Conference with 46 points and enter on a 15-match unbeaten sequence. Their attack has produced 15 goals across their last five matches, though defensive lapses mean they have also conceded in each of those games. Top scorer Milan Iloski leads their forward line with 19 goals across all competitions, providing regular finishing power even while Agustín Anello, Bruno Damiani, and Cavan Sullivan remain sidelined through injury.
New England Revolution hold third place on 52 points, six ahead of Philadelphia, and carry a strong away record into this fixture. However, the visitors travel without three regular starters through injury, as Alhassan Yusuf, Jack Harrison, and Leonardo Campana are all absent. Carles Gil remains their primary creative force with 12 goals this campaign, but the selection issues test their structure in transition.
Our model places high confidence in a Philadelphia Union win, expecting their sustained scoring output and home stability to overcome New England's depleted squad. The projections also favour more than 2.5 goals in the match with high confidence, while a 2-1 victory for the home side represents the speculative exact scoreline call with low confidence.
Match-by-match
Eastern Conference leaders Nashville SC travel with 67 points and a plus-41 goal difference, led by Sam Surridge's 17 goals across all competitions. They face bottom-ranked CF Montreal, who sit 15th with 25 points, winless in three matches and without a clean sheet in 18 attempts. Montreal must manage without top scorer Prince-Osei Owusu and defender Brayan Ceballos, alongside Bode Hidalgo and Dante Sealy. Our model issues a medium-confidence call for a Nashville SC win, also projecting the visitors to score the opening goal with high confidence.
Separated by a single point in the mid-table standings, Columbus Crew (11th, 35 points) host Toronto FC (10th, 36 points). Columbus arrive on a two-match winning run and maintain a rolling expected goals figure of 1.8 over their last five games, creating more than two big chances per match. Toronto recorded a 2-0 victory against New York Red Bulls in their last outing but travel without Nelson Palacio and Walker Zimmerman. The model projects a Columbus Crew win with medium confidence and expects more than 2.5 goals with high confidence.
Inter Miami occupy second place in the East with 55 points and a conference-high 73 goals, spearheaded by Lionel Messi's 24 goals this season. They visit ninth-place New York Red Bulls, who have suffered three defeats in their last five home matches and concede nearly two goals per game on their own ground. The model leans toward an Inter Miami win with medium confidence, expecting both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals in the match with high confidence.
Orlando City SC sit seventh on 41 points after winning five consecutive home games, scoring 14 goals over their last five fixtures overall despite failing to keep a clean sheet in six. New York City FC are 12th and winless in five, further weakened by absences to Arnau Farnós, Drew Baiera, and Kai Trewin. The forecasting model places a cautious, low-confidence call on an Orlando City SC win, while projecting more than 2.5 goals with high confidence.
DC United are 13th with 33 points and have gone seven matches without a clean sheet, conceding almost two expected goals per game over the past month. FC Cincinnati sit eighth and lead the competition in big chances created, directed by Evander Ferreira and finished by Kévin Denkey, who has 17 goals this season. Our model projects an FC Cincinnati win with low confidence, accompanied by high confidence in both teams to score and more than 2.5 goals.
Atlanta United sit 14th with 30 points, undermined by a defence that has conceded 29 goals in 15 home fixtures. Chicago Fire hold fourth place on 48 points with 13-goal forward Hugo Cuypers and playmaker Philip Zinckernagel, despite recent defeats and the absence of suspended defender Jack Elliott. The model offers a low-confidence call for a Chicago Fire win, paired with high confidence on more than 2.5 goals in the match.
Houston Dynamo are fifth in the West with 47 points despite an ongoing six-match winless run, though their home displays have remained steadier than their results on the road. Minnesota United FC sit 13th and present an open profile, having seen both teams score in each of their last ten matches while Kelvin Yeboah has scored 17 goals. Our model leans toward a Houston Dynamo win with medium confidence, anticipating more than 2.5 goals.
Third-place FC Dallas (51 points) host fourth-place San Jose Earthquakes (48 points) in an upper-table Western Conference encounter. Dallas are unbeaten in five home games, driven by 20-goal striker Petar Musa. San Jose boast a nine-match unbeaten run, but have drawn four of their last five away games and are missing DeJuan Jones, Benji Kikanović, and Darius Johnson. The model forecasts an FC Dallas win with medium confidence, alongside high confidence on more than 2.5 goals.
At the lower end of the Western Conference, 15th-place Sporting Kansas City (22 points, 75 goals conceded) meet 14th-place Austin (31 points). Sporting KC have yet to record a clean sheet at home this season and miss Justin Reynolds, Lasse Berg Johnsen, and Or Blorian. Austin enter on a three-match losing sequence but hold two wins from their last three meetings with Sporting KC. The model gives a low-confidence projection for a Sporting Kansas City win, expecting more than 2.5 goals with high confidence.
Western Conference leaders Vancouver Whitecaps travel with 55 points and the division's best expected goal difference, powered by 17-goal Brian White, though they will miss Thomas Müller. Ninth-place Colorado Rapids are winless in five matches but have lost only once at home all season. The model projects a Vancouver Whitecaps win with low confidence.
Second-place St. Louis City (51 points) visit tenth-place Real Salt Lake (36 points). Real Salt Lake defeated Sporting Kansas City 3-1 in their last match but face defensive selection issues with Diego Luna, Emeka Eneli, and Juan José Arias injured. St. Louis scored six goals against Los Angeles Galaxy earlier this month but were beaten 3-2 by Minnesota United last time out. Our model issues a low-confidence call for a Real Salt Lake win.
San Diego sit 12th in the West and are winless in eight matches, yet their home attack averages over two goals per game with Anders Dreyer on 13 goals. Seventh-place Seattle Sounders have lost just one of their last ten matches overall, but their away attack averages only one goal per game with five clean sheets away from home in 15 attempts. The model cautiously projects a San Diego win with low confidence, while expecting more than 2.5 goals with high confidence.
Portland Timbers sit 11th in the West and are winless in seven matches, though they have scored 31 goals in 15 home fixtures. Fifth-place Charlotte travel across conferences with 47 points and 13-goal forward Idan Toklomati Jorno, but their away defence has surrendered a rolling expected-goals-against average of 2.3 over their past five outings. The model projects a Portland Timbers win with medium confidence and holds high confidence in both teams to score.
The round concludes with a cross-town meeting between sixth-place Los Angeles FC (46 points) and eighth-place Los Angeles Galaxy (40 points). LAFC enter having drawn 1-1 with New York City FC, with top scorer Denis Bouanga on 17 goals, though Jeremy Ebobisse, Timothy Tillman, and Cabral Carter are out through injury. Galaxy rely on Marco Reus, who has eight goals, but will be without Hirving Lozano, Kyogo Furuhashi, and Isaiah Parente following a run that includes a 6-2 defeat at St. Louis and a 2-2 draw with San Diego.
Matchweek 31 carries major implications for postseason positioning across both conferences. In the East, Inter Miami could cut into Nashville SC's lead if the front-runners falter against Montreal, while Philadelphia Union can pull level on points with New England Revolution. Out West, Vancouver Whitecaps can consolidate first place, while Dallas, San Jose, and St. Louis battle to secure home advantage for the postseason.
