Major League Soccer wrapped up its regular season campaign in Matchweek 34, punctuated by a chaotic 3-3 draw between Inter Miami and Charlotte and Sporting Kansas City's unexpected 1-0 away victory over San Diego. Across the 15 fixtures, our forecasting model enjoyed a solid weekend in match selection by projecting 11 match results correctly, though projections for both teams to score found the going much tougher.
How our forecasts did
Projections on both teams to score struggled during the final matchweek, with seven of the 15 calls landing as seven fixtures produced clean sheets. The model also found exact scorelines tough to pin down, converting two of the 15 calls, while half-time and full-time forecasts landed in six of 15 fixtures. Total goals finished split down the middle, with eight of the 15 calls correct.
On the other hand, the win or draw calls were our most reliable category, finding success in 14 of the 15 fixtures. Match result calls performed well too, hitting 11 of the 15 fixtures, while the first team to score projections also returned 11 correct outcomes from 15 attempts.
Results
Inter Miami 3-3 Charlotte Inter Miami opened the scoring and were backed firmly to win, but their open defending allowed Charlotte to secure a 3-3 draw, landing our calls for both teams to score and over 2.5 goals while missing the match result.
FC Cincinnati 0-2 Nashville SC Nashville SC took control despite playing away from home, scoring first and holding out for a 2-0 win to validate our low-confidence match result call, though the absence of home goals defeated our total goals and both teams to score forecasts.
Philadelphia Union 4-1 Toronto FC Philadelphia Union tore through Toronto FC with a dominant 4-1 victory, delivering on firm calls for a home win, over 2.5 goals, the opening goal, and a home lead at both half-time and full-time.
New York Red Bulls 3-0 Atlanta United FC New York Red Bulls swept past Atlanta United FC in a 3-0 home triumph, landing the match result, total goals, and first team to score calls, though Atlanta failed to deliver the expected away goal.
CF Montreal 0-2 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps justified our medium-confidence away forecast by shutting out CF Montreal 2-0, scoring first and taking the win, even as total goals stayed under the projected mark.
Chicago Fire 3-4 Columbus Crew Columbus Crew came out on top in a wild seven-goal contest, defeating Chicago Fire 3-4; our model incorrectly called a home win but was right on over 2.5 goals and both teams finding the net.
Orlando City SC 1-0 New England Revolution Orlando City SC held firm for a 1-0 victory over New England Revolution, hitting our match result and first team to score calls, though both teams to score failed as the visitors were shut out.
DC United 0-1 New York City FC New York City FC took advantage of an out-of-sorts home side to claim a 1-0 away win, landing our match result call while falling short on the projected high goal count.
FC Dallas 3-1 Colorado Rapids FC Dallas collected a 3-1 victory over Colorado Rapids to fulfill our low-confidence match result projection, over 2.5 goals, and both teams to score, though Colorado struck first against the run of play.
Austin 0-2 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers seized an away win by blanking Austin 0-2, leading at the break and full-time to reward our match result and game-state calls while missing on both teams scoring.
Minnesota United FC 3-1 San Jose Earthquakes Minnesota United FC continued their strong run of form by beating San Jose Earthquakes 3-1, landing our match result, total goals, and both teams to score calls, despite San Jose grabbing the opening goal.
Houston Dynamo 0-1 St. Louis City St. Louis City edged a tight encounter 0-1 against Houston Dynamo, overturning our model's cautious projection of a home victory as Houston were held scoreless.
Seattle Sounders 2-1 Los Angeles FC Seattle Sounders earned a 2-1 win over Los Angeles FC, scoring first and leading at the break to give our model a clean sweep across all categories, including the exact 2-1 scoreline.
Real Salt Lake 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy Real Salt Lake mirrored that scoreline with a 2-1 home victory over the Los Angeles Galaxy, landing our match result, total goals, both teams to score, and exact scoreline forecasts.
San Diego 0-1 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City produced the shock of the final day with a 1-0 away triumph at San Diego, defying our firm home win call in a fixture where San Diego failed to score.
What we got wrong
The biggest blemish of the weekend came at Snapdragon Stadium, where the model made a firm call for a San Diego victory over Sporting Kansas City. Mikey Varas's side had been creating high volumes of scoring opportunities through Anders Dreyer, but they failed to convert any of their openings and surrendered an unexpected clean sheet in a 1-0 defeat.
The model also misread the game flow in Houston, where Houston Dynamo were projected to take all three points against St. Louis City. With fitness questions surrounding Guilherme and Héctor Herrera, Houston lacked incision in the final third and slipped to a 1-0 loss.
With the regular season concluded, Matchweek 34 sorted final seeds across both conferences, rewarding sides like Philadelphia and Vancouver for sharp attacking displays while serving notice that defensive resolve can upend form on any given weekend.
