Major League Soccer Matchweek 7 delivered plenty of drama across fifteen fixtures, headlined by Colorado Rapids running riot in a 6-2 win against Houston Dynamo. Across the round's single graded fixture, our model found mixed fortunes, securing correct outcomes on the match outcome and the opening scorer but missing across the total goals and clean sheet projections.
How our forecasts did
Our projections struggled most on goal-count and score-specific calls. In total goals, zero of the one call landed, and both teams to score went unrewarded with zero of the one call correct. The exact scoreline projection missed with zero of the one call landing, while half-time and full-time also failed to convert with zero of the one call correct.
On the other hand, match outcomes performed without blemish. One of the one match result calls landed, and win or draw delivered as well with one of the one call correct. First team to score rounded off the positive side of the sheet, where one of the one call was correct.
Results
Toronto FC opened the action with a 1-1 draw against FC Cincinnati, leaving the points shared.
Los Angeles Galaxy earned an away victory, edging past Austin 2-1.
Philadelphia Union also collected three points on their travels, securing a 2-1 win at CF Montreal.
Portland Timbers held firm on their home ground to beat Los Angeles FC 2-1.
Inter Miami and New York Red Bulls played out an entertaining 2-2 draw.
Vancouver Whitecaps shut out New York City FC to claim a comfortable 2-0 victory.
Nashville SC travelled to Charlotte and left with all three points courtesy of a 2-1 away win.
New England Revolution produced a solid defensive display to record a 1-0 victory over DC United.
Chicago Fire also relied on defensive discipline, claiming a narrow 1-0 win against Atlanta United FC.
FC Dallas and St. Louis City could not be separated, settling for a 1-1 draw.
San Jose Earthquakes took control away from home to claim a 3-1 win over Sporting Kansas City.
Colorado Rapids produced the scoring display of the round, putting six goals past Houston Dynamo in a 6-2 victory.
Minnesota United FC held on for a 2-1 away win at San Diego.
Columbus Crew and Orlando City SC finished level after sharing two goals in a 1-1 draw.
Seattle Sounders closed the matchweek by defeating Real Salt Lake 2-0. Our model accurately called a Seattle Sounders win, a winner either way, and Seattle Sounders to score the opening goal, though calls for over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, an exact 2-1 scoreline, and Seattle leading at half-time and full-time missed.
What we got wrong
Our model read Seattle Sounders versus Real Salt Lake as an open contest between two clubs desperate to snap long winless stretches. Seattle entered winless in thirteen fixtures, while Real Salt Lake were winless in twelve. The projection leaned on defensive frailties across both lineups, expecting Real Salt Lake to find the net despite missing Diego Luna and defensive anchor Justen Glad, and anticipating over 2.5 goals even with Seattle missing top scorer Dejan Joveljic, Jesus Ferreira, and Paul Rothrock.
Instead, Seattle clamped down at the back and kept Real Salt Lake completely off the scoresheet. While the model correctly foresaw Seattle breaking their slump and striking first, it overestimated the visiting attack's ability to score without Luna, causing the both teams to score and higher goal totals to fail.
Matchweek 7 showed that road sides can travel with intent, as several away teams secured victories across the league, while Seattle finally ended their thirteen-game wait for a win.
