Major League Soccer Matchweek 16 brought an extensive set of 21 fixtures packed with goals, headlined by Portland Timbers dismantling Seattle Sounders 5-1 on the road and Chicago Fire securing a 3-1 victory over Vancouver Whitecaps. With only one fixture carrying graded model forecasts this round, our projections experienced a mixed run, delivering correct calls on goals while misjudging the match direction.
How our forecasts did
Looking at the scoreboard, the model went one for one on total goals, one for one on both teams to score, and one for one on win or draw. However, match result missed, with zero correct from one graded call. The more granular topics also failed to land: first team to score finished zero from one, exact scoreline zero from one, and half-time and full-time zero from one.
Results
The round opened with CF Montreal 0-0 Toronto FC, a cautious start before St. Louis City edge Sporting Kansas City 3-2 in a high-scoring encounter. Portland Timbers then ran riot away from home in Seattle Sounders 1-5 Portland Timbers.
Nashville SC followed with a tight defensive display in Nashville SC 1-0 Atlanta United FC, while Los Angeles FC proved far too strong in Los Angeles Galaxy 0-3 Los Angeles FC.
Midweek fixtures delivered drama across the board. Inter Miami 3-2 Chicago Fire and FC Cincinnati 4-3 Vancouver Whitecaps produced nine combined goals between them. New York City FC took the points in Columbus Crew 1-2 New York City FC, and Philadelphia Union 3-1 New York Red Bulls saw the hosts pull clear. New England Revolution 0-0 Toronto FC delivered another scoreless draw for Toronto.
Elsewhere, Charlotte 2-2 Atlanta United FC shared four goals, while Nashville SC 1-0 CF Montreal delivered another clean sheet for Nashville. Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Minnesota United FC went to the home side, Houston Dynamo 1-1 DC United ended level, and Austin 3-1 Seattle Sounders handed Seattle another away defeat.
Colorado Rapids 1-0 San Diego saw a lone goal decide the contest, while Los Angeles FC 3-1 Real Salt Lake confirmed an impressive week for LAFC. Los Angeles Galaxy 1-3 St. Louis City compounded problems for the Galaxy, Orlando City SC dominated San Jose Earthquakes 0-4 Orlando City SC, and Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas ended honours even.
In the final fixture evaluated by the forecasting model, Chicago Fire 3-1 Vancouver Whitecaps produced plenty of attacking action. Our firm call for more than 2.5 goals and the projection of both teams to score landed comfortably. The win or draw call for a decisive winner also proved correct, though the model's low-confidence call for an away win missed.
What we got wrong
The primary miscalculation came in Chicago Fire 3-1 Vancouver Whitecaps. The model backed Vancouver based on their standing as Western Conference leaders and an away record featuring three consecutive shutouts. Instead, Chicago's home form—having found the net in every home game of the season—overwhelmed Vancouver's defensive stability, rendering our projected 2-1 away scoreline, the half-time lead, and the first-goal call incorrect.
Matchweek 16 exposed defensive fragilities across several established sides while confirming that road fixtures remain treacherous across the league.
