Chicago Fire arrive on a three-match winning streak and have been a force at home, scoring in all eight league fixtures at their own ground this season. Charlotte’s away form is shaky, shipping two goals per game on the road, and their last two visits to Illinois ended as quiet shutouts for the Fire — a trend that looks set to reverse given the attacking talent on display despite heavy squad rotation. Robert Lewandowski’s presence in a rotated Fire XI still gives them a clinical edge, while Charlotte’s own lineup shuffle may lead to defensive gaps. Four of the last five head‑to‑head meetings have seen both teams score and at least three goals, and with both sides vulnerable at the back, this should follow suit.
Match ResultLOWLow confidence, rated against other forecasts of the same outcome typeHome WinCorrect
Chicago Fire boast a strong home record (5 wins in 8) and are in fine form, but seven regulars missing makes the side significantly less cohesive; that rotation introduces enough uncertainty to keep confidence low even against Charlotte’s own heavily rotated lineup.
Win or DrawHIGHHigh confidence, rated against other forecasts of the same outcome typeHome or DrawCorrect
Chicago have lost only three home games all season and Charlotte have managed merely two wins in seven away trips. The Fire’s failure to score in none of their home matches makes a Chicago draw-or-win outcome highly reliable even with the squad changes.
Total GoalsMEDMedium confidence, rated against other forecasts of the same outcome type3 or more goalsCorrect
High-confidence forecasts have landed 74% of the time this season, over 2,080 graded calls. Track record →
How Our Call Changed
Pre-match → Final call, after lineups and injuries landed.
Match Result
Kept Home Win, moved confidence medium → low
Win or Draw
Switched from Home or Away to Home or Draw · confidence medium → high
Total Goals
Kept 3 or more goals, moved confidence high → medium
Match StatsIncludes deeper match tracker data — pressing, ball progression and shot quality — alongside the standard boxscore. Coverage is limited to major competitions, and a specific match can still go unmatched.
Top Stats
0.94xG0.78
46%Possession54%
14 (5)Shots (on target)14 (1)
1Big Chances Created0
Attacking Play
1.56xG on Target0.49
Possession & Passing
462 · 88%Passes (accuracy)532 · 90%
8Corners6
Duels & Pressing
37Duels Won30
6 (50%)Aerial Duels Won6 (50%)
Defending & Discipline
0Saves3
8Fouls7
Shot MapEvery shot of the match, sized by chance quality (xG). Tap one to see where it went. Coverage is limited to major competitions.
Chicago Fire
0.94xG
14 shots · 5 on target
Charlotte
0.78xG
14 shots · 1 on target
GoalSavedOff TargetBlockedWoodworkDot size = xG
Robert LewandowskiGoal
68' · Chicago Fire
25 / 28
xG
0.37
xGOT
0.88
Body part
Right foot
Situation
Open play
Key Moments
Match Events
10'
A. Saletros
Chicago Fire
18'⚽
P. Biel
assist: I. Toklomati
Charlotte
20'⚽
R. Lewandowski
assist: P. Zinckernagel
Chicago Fire
Half Time
59'
J. Waterman
Chicago Fire
68'⚽
R. Lewandowski
assist: R. Lod
Chicago Fire
69'
D. Schnegg
off: H. Toffolo
Player RatingsPerformance rating out of 10 from the match data feed, covering every action a player took. The 5 best-rated from each side are shown; the star marks the highest rated on the pitch.
44. Josh Cohen24. Jonathan Dean14. Viktor Radojević5. Samuel Rogers12. Puso Dithejane35. Sergio Oregel22. Mauricio Pineda7. Maren Haile-Selassie20. Jason Shokalook
Charlotte
Coach: Dean Smith
21. Tyler Miller4. Andrew Privett23. David Schnegg35. Will Cleary13. Brandt Bronico20. Baye Coulibaly37. Rodolfo Aloko25. Tyger Smalls7. Archie Goodwin
8 Oct 23Chicago Fire0–2CharlotteMajor League Soccer
17 May 23Charlotte2–1Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
18 Sept 22Chicago Fire2–3CharlotteMajor League Soccer
6 Aug 22Charlotte2–3Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
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