Gremio vs Palmeiras

Gremio host Palmeiras in Serie A on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, with the hosts looking to halt a run of three straight defeats. Grêmio enter the weekend 16th in the table on 28 points from 27 matches, sitting just clear of the lower positions, while Palmeiras sit second with 56 points.

Gremio carry three consecutive losses and 0.59 expected goals

Gremio have lost four of their last five Serie A fixtures, culminating in a 3-2 defeat away at Botafogo on 16 September 2026. Prior to that, they dropped points in a 2-1 home loss against Vasco DA Gama on 12 September and a 1-0 defeat at Vitoria on 7 September. Across their last five matches with chance data, Gremio produced only 0.59 expected goals per game while allowing 1.93. Carlos Vinícius leads their scoring with 10 goals in all competitions, but the squad must manage without Dodi through injury, as well as F. Amuzu and Marlon, who are not in the matchday group.

Palmeiras bring seven away victories and José Manuel López

Palmeiras enter this trip unbeaten in their last four Serie A matches, having beaten Sao Paulo 2-0 at home on 12 September 2026 after successive away draws against Botafogo (0-0) and Mirassol (1-1). Their away record across the league season features seven wins, five draws and only two defeats from 14 games, conceding just 12 times on the road. José Manuel López stands as their top scorer this season with eight goals in all competitions. The visitors face some squad adjustments of their own, missing Murilo through suspension alongside injured pair Jefte and Paulinho.

Gremio won 3-2 in the previous Porto Alegre clash

The two clubs last crossed paths on 3 April 2026, when Palmeiras secured a 2-1 victory. However, Gremio took maximum points in the meeting prior to that, winning 3-2 on 26 November 2025. That result reflects Gremio's generally sturdier home record in the league, where they have claimed seven victories, three draws and three defeats from 13 matches, scoring 22 goals at Arena do Grêmio.

Our model expects a Palmeiras win

Our model expects a Palmeiras win with medium confidence. The call is backed by the 28-point gap between the sides in the standings and Palmeiras conceding only 12 goals across 14 away fixtures. Gremio's recent chance quality of 0.59 expected goals created against 1.93 allowed underlines why the league's second-placed side enters as the selection.