Vasco da Gama vs Coritiba

Vasco DA Gama face Coritiba in Serie A on Saturday, 19 September 2026, at Estádio São Januário in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro. Ten points divide eighth-placed Coritiba from a Vasco DA Gama side sitting 17th in the relegation zone.

Vasco DA Gama generate 1.61 expected goals a game

Vasco DA Gama enter Matchweek 28 after a 2-1 away victory against Gremio on 12 September 2026, which followed a 0-1 defeat to Fluminense on 6 September 2026 and a 3-1 home win against Cruzeiro on 30 August 2026. Despite occupying 17th place with 28 points from 26 matches, their chance metrics remain strong. Over their last five fixtures with chance data, Vasco DA Gama generated 1.61 expected goals per match while conceding 1.09. At Estádio São Januário, they have produced six wins, two draws, and five losses from 13 league games, scoring 16 and conceding 18. Thiago Mendes leads the team's scoring charts with four goals across all competitions this season.

Coritiba allow 1.65 expected goals despite sitting eighth

Coritiba hold eighth position with 38 points from 27 matches, but their defensive metrics have slipped. Across their last five matches with chance data, Coritiba have allowed 1.65 expected goals a game while creating 1.26. Their latest league outing ended in a 3-3 home draw against Atletico Paranaense on 12 September 2026, coming after a 1-2 home loss to Mirassol on 6 September 2026 and a 3-2 away win at Remo on 31 August 2026. Away from home in Serie A, Coritiba have recorded five wins, four draws, and four defeats in 13 matches, with 18 goals scored and 19 conceded. Pedro Rocha has eight goals across all competitions this season to lead their attack.

Tche Tche and Breno Lopes serve suspensions

Both squads carry notable selection issues into the fixture. Vasco DA Gama must replace Tche Tche due to suspension, while Brenner and Mateus Carvalho remain sidelined by injury, and Ramon Rique is doubtful. Coritiba will travel without Breno Lopes through suspension, while B. Ocampo, Lucas Ronier, and Tinga are all out injured. In their earlier meeting this season on 1 April 2026, the sides shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our model leans narrowly towards a Vasco DA Gama win

Our forecasting model leans narrowly towards a Vasco DA Gama win. The low-confidence call is supported by Vasco DA Gama's underlying chance metrics, which show 1.61 expected goals created per game compared to Coritiba's 1.26, alongside Coritiba's defensive concession of 1.65 expected goals. Coritiba's 10-point cushion in the standings and their five away victories keep the contest balanced.