Serie A Matchweek 28 Results: Vasco hit five past Coritiba

Matchweek 28 of Brazil's Serie A brought an emphatic 5-0 victory for Vasco da Gama over Coritiba and a frustrating draw for title-chasing Palmeiras, while our forecasting model enjoyed a solid showing on main outcomes by correctly calling seven of the ten match result forecasts.

How our forecasts did

The round exposed sharp differences across individual topics. Exact scorelines proved impossible to predict, with zero of the ten calls landing, while half-time and full-time forecasts struggled as only three of the ten found their mark. First team to score also fell short of expectations, with four of the ten calls graded correct. Both total goals and both teams to score finished evenly split, with five of the ten calls landing in each category. On broader outcomes, however, the model was sharp. Win or draw calls led the round as nine of the ten landed, while seven of the ten match result forecasts proved accurate across the ten fixtures.

Results

Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc
Atletico-MG were held to a 1-1 draw by Chapecoense-sc. The model expected a home win and missed on the match result, though its high-confidence win or draw call and both teams to score projection landed.

Mirassol 2-0 Botafogo
Mirassol secured a clean 2-0 win over Botafogo despite squad absentees. The model accurately forecasted a Mirassol win, Mirassol to win or draw, and Mirassol to open the scoring.

Remo 1-2 Santos
Santos edged Remo 2-1 on the road despite missing Neymar. The model correctly anticipated an away win, Santos to win or draw, more than 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and Santos to strike first.

Vasco DA Gama 5-0 Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama swept Coritiba aside in a 5-0 rout. The projection correctly called a Vasco win, win or draw, over 2.5 goals, and at least one team kept off the scoresheet.

Sao Paulo 1-0 Internacional
Sao Paulo edged Internacional 1-0 in a tight contest. The model successfully projected a home win and Sao Paulo to open the scoring, though its call for over 2.5 goals missed.

Gremio 0-0 Palmeiras
Title-chasing Palmeiras were held to a scoreless 0-0 draw by Gremio. The projection missed on a Palmeiras win, though it correctly called Palmeiras to win or draw and fewer than 2.5 goals.

Corinthians 1-3 Fluminense
Fluminense earned an impressive 3-1 away victory over Corinthians. The model had projected a Corinthians win and under 2.5 goals, missing across the board on this fixture.

Vitoria 1-3 Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro took advantage of defensive absences to defeat Vitoria 3-1. The model accurately called an away win, a winner either way, and both teams to score.

Flamengo 2-1 RB Bragantino
Flamengo overcame multiple suspensions to beat RB Bragantino 2-1. High-confidence calls for a Flamengo win, Flamengo to win or draw, and Flamengo to score first all landed alongside over 2.5 goals.

Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Bahia
Atletico Paranaense halted Bahia's ten-match unbeaten run with a 2-1 victory. The model was right to call an Atletico Paranaense win, more than 2.5 goals, and both teams to score.

What we got wrong

The clearest failure of the weekend came at Corinthians, where Fluminense ran out 3-1 winners. The model leaned heavily on Corinthians having kept six clean sheets at home this season, while underestimating the lingering damage of their five-match league losing streak. Instead of a low-scoring home reset, the visitors found space repeatedly, upending our calls for a home win and fewer than 2.5 goals.

Another frustrating miss occurred in the round opener, where Atletico-MG were held to a 1-1 draw by Chapecoense-sc. Projecting an Atletico-MG win with firm confidence seemed well-founded after three home wins in their previous four matches with over two goals scored per match. Chapecoense-sc held firm, showing that even teams at the foot of the table can deny high-confidence match result calls.

Matchweek 28 reshaped the top of the standings, trimming Palmeiras' cushion after their blank against Gremio and allowing Flamengo to close the gap. Vasco da Gama's five-goal display provided relief from their recent slide, while Fluminense's away triumph deepened the troubles for Corinthians.

Serie A Matchweek 28 Predictions

Brazil's Serie A enters Matchweek 28 running from September 19 to September 20, featuring a ten-game slate shaped by squad depth tests and relegation scrambles. While several contenders navigate key absences and continental fatigue, the round provides pivotal moments at both ends of the standings, from teams pushing to cement continental berths to basement dwellers fighting to stave off the drop.

The match of the round

Atletico-MG versus Chapecoense stands out as the most lopsided fixture on paper, offering the hosts a golden opportunity to strengthen their bid for a top-seven finish. Atletico-MG have turned their home ground into a genuine fortress lately, securing three victories across their last four outings on home soil while scoring at a rate superior to two goals per match. Their attacking fluency and ability to dominate territory make them an imposing opponent for any visiting side.

Chapecoense, rooted to the bottom of the table, arrive facing an uphill battle. Our forecasting model issues a firm projection for an Atletico-MG win, paired with a confident call that the hosts will strike first and score the opening goal.

Saturday

Mirassol meet Botafogo with both clubs experiencing turbulent form across the second half of the campaign. Mirassol enter severely shorthanded, missing Walter, Negueba, Jose Aldo and the suspended Alesson, a cluster of absences that disrupts their core spine. Nevertheless, Mirassol have conceded only four home defeats all season, prompting our model to issue a cautious call for a Mirassol win in what projects to be a tight contest where both teams to score remains a factor.

Remo, currently anchored to the foot of the table, seek respite after three consecutive losses left them winless in six fixtures. They host a Santos outfit that has claimed four victories in their last five matches, though the visitors travel without Neymar and two additional regular starters. Santos have struggled to replicate their form on the road, yet our model leans cautiously toward a Santos win, expecting the visitors to break the deadlock and secure a low-scoring triumph.

Vasco DA Gama welcome Coritiba seeking to halt a poor run that has seen them lose six of their last ten matches, compounded by having collected just two clean sheets all season. Coritiba sit higher in the table but must cope without suspended top scorer Breno Lopes and two fellow starters.