Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama

Botafogo host Vasco da Gama in Serie A on Wednesday, 7 October 2026, at Estádio Nilton Santos in Rio de Janeiro, with the hosts having won the last four meetings between the sides.

Botafogo have won four consecutive meetings

Botafogo enter the match in 12th place with 35 points from 28 matches, having scored 41 goals and conceded 45. While their recent league run features one win from their last five outings—a 3-2 home victory against Gremio on 16 September 2026 alongside a 0-2 loss away to Mirassol on 19 September 2026—they hold a strong recent record in this fixture. Botafogo won 2-1 on 5 April 2026, 3-0 on 5 November 2025, 2-0 on 12 July 2025, and 3-0 on 6 November 2024. At Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A this season, Botafogo have registered five wins, six draws, and three losses from 14 matches, scoring 24 goals and conceding 20. They enter this fixture without four injured players: Edenílson, Jordan Barrera, Kaio, and Matheus Martins. Top scorer Danilo Santos leads their attack with nine goals in all competitions.

Vasco da Gama create 2.23 expected goals a match

Vasco da Gama sit 16th with 31 points from 27 matches, scoring 34 and allowing 41. They arrive after a 5-0 home victory against Coritiba on 19 September 2026 and a 2-1 away win at Gremio on 12 September 2026. Over their last five matches with chance data, Vasco da Gama have created 2.23 expected goals a game while conceding 1.04, compared to Botafogo's 1.16 created and 1.08 allowed. However, Vasco da Gama have found results difficult to secure on the road in this competition, recording one win, five draws, and seven defeats across 13 away fixtures, scoring 13 and conceding 23. Andrés Gómez is ruled out through suspension, while Brenner and Carlos Cuesta are absent through injury. Thiago Mendes remains their top scorer this season with five goals across all competitions.

Our model leans towards a Vasco da Gama win

Our model leans narrowly towards a Vasco da Gama win. That call draws on Vasco da Gama's recent attacking output, having scored ten goals across their past four matches, including a 3-1 win over Cruzeiro on 30 August 2026 and the 5-0 win against Coritiba. Complicating that assessment are their travel statistics, with only one away league victory in 13 attempts, alongside Botafogo's run of four consecutive victories against them.