Lazio vs Monza: Lazio Unbeaten with Thirteen Points
Published
Lazio host Monza in Serie A on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico in Roma, bringing an unbeaten five-match start into Matchweek 6.
Lazio collect 13 points from five matches
Lazio sit 3rd in the Serie A table with 13 points from 5 matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 3. Their campaign began with a 1-0 win at Bologna on 24 August 2026, followed by a 1-0 victory against Genoa on 30 August, a 2-1 win at Udinese on 7 September, a 2-2 draw with AC Milan on 12 September, and a 2-0 victory at Venezia on 19 September. At Stadio Olimpico, they have registered 1 win and 1 draw in league action, scoring 3 goals and conceding 2.
Midfielder Davide Frattesi leads the team with 3 goals across all competitions this season. In underlying metrics, Lazio have averaged 1.52 expected goals created and 1.22 conceded over their last 5 fixtures with chance data. Squad selection involves several injury concerns: Albert Guðmundsson and Danilo Cataldi are confirmed out, while Adam Marušić and Nicolò Rovella are doubtful.
Monza search for first away points after conceding eight
Monza sit 15th in Serie A with 4 points from 5 games, having scored 8 goals and conceded 12. Their away record shows 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats from 3 road fixtures, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. They lost 4-1 at Inter on 22 August 2026, drew 1-1 at Parma on 6 September, and suffered a 3-2 defeat at Lecce on 13 September before securing their first league win in a 2-1 home victory against Sassuolo on 18 September.
Forward Gustavo Varela leads Monza with 4 goals in all competitions. Over their last 5 matches with chance data, Monza generated 1.73 expected goals per game while allowing 1.09. Absences affect the traveling squad, with Jan Ziólkowski and Matteo Pessina ruled out through injury, and Patrick Ciurria listed as doubtful.
Head-to-head record favors Lazio
Recent meetings between the clubs lean toward Lazio, who won 5-1 at home on 9 February 2025 and 1-0 on the road on 10 November 2024. The two previous encounters ended in draws: 2-2 on 4 May 2024 and 1-1 on 23 September 2023.
Our model expects a Lazio win
Our forecasting model expects a Lazio win, giving medium confidence to the home team. Lazio enter without a defeat in 5 matches and hold 4 points from their two home fixtures at Stadio Olimpico. Monza arrive having conceded 8 goals without a win across 3 away matches, though Gustavo Varela's 4 goals and Monza's 1.73 expected goals per game remain factors the hosts must manage.
