Inter vs Parma: Inter Score 12 in Three Home Games
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Inter take on Parma in Serie A on Saturday 10 October 2026 at San Siro in Milan, with the hosts having won all three of their home league fixtures while scoring 12 goals.
Inter average 2.99 expected goals in attack
Inter sit second in the Serie A table with 13 points from five matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding eight. Over their last five matches with chance data, Cristian Chivu's team have created 2.99 expected goals per game while allowing 1.68. Lautaro Martínez leads the squad with four goals across all competitions this season. Their latest league fixture ended in a 2-2 draw away at AS Roma on 19 September 2026, following a 5-3 home victory over Udinese on 14 September 2026 and a 3-2 home win against Napoli on 5 September 2026. Inter will be without Curtis Jones and John Stones due to injury.
Parma start Alberto Gilardino amid four absences
Parma sit 15th in Serie A with four points from five fixtures, having scored four goals and conceded seven. Alberto Gilardino takes charge for his first match after the club parted ways with Carlos Cuesta on 27 September 2026. Parma enter the fixture missing Dominik Drobnič, Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, and Pontus Almqvist through injury, while defender Abdoulaye Ndiaye is doubtful. Top scorer David Romero has two goals this season, including a strike in Parma's 2-1 home victory against Genoa on 20 September 2026. Parma have lost both away league matches this season, falling 2-0 away at Juventus on 29 August 2026 and 2-1 away at Como on 14 September 2026, while creating 0.65 expected goals per game and allowing 1.63 across their last five matches with chance data.
Our model firmly expects an Inter win
Our model firmly expects an Inter win on Saturday. Inter have taken three wins from three home league games, outscoring opponents 12 to six, and they have won the last two meetings between these sides 2-0 on 3 May 2026 and 7 Jan 2026. Parma's lack of away points and an output of 0.65 expected goals per game reinforce that projection, even as Inter adjust for the defensive absence of John Stones after conceding eight goals in five league rounds.

